The problem of induction

Blowtus

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Jul 14, 2006
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From wikipedia:
The problem of induction is the philosophical question of whether inductive reasoning is valid. That is, what is the justification for either:

1. generalizing about the properties of a class of objects based on some number of observations of particular instances of that class (for example, the inference that "all swans we have seen are white, and therefore all swans are white," before the discovery of black swans); or
2. presupposing that a sequence of events in the future will occur as it always has in the past (for example, that the laws of physics will hold as they have always been observed to hold).

The problem puts in doubt all empirical claims made in everyday life or through the scientific method. Although the problem dates back to the Pyrrhonism of ancient philosophy, David Hume introduced it in the mid-18th century, with the most notable response provided by Karl Popper two centuries later.





I'm struggling to understand it.

If there are 3 conceivable universal states, causality, not causality, and a combination of both, and everything I observe fits with the notion of causality, then would not Occam's razor have it that a better explanation of the universe is that of adhering to causality alone? Rather than some possible mixture of both states?
 
Hume outlines his concerns about induction rather succinctly and clearly in An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. If one is seized by this "problem," that (short) work is a good starting point.

The problem for Hume, as I recall, is not about the "correctness" of induction (or whether we should or shouldn't "utilize" or trust it), but rather that we depend on it constantly despite a lack of grounding or justification in "reason." What, according to Hume, gives weight to, and confidence in, our inferences is not recourse to principles of reason, but rather habit or custom (experience). Blowtus, you seem to suppose causality, whereas for Hume causality is an unjustified (this always means with respect to reason) connection we make between events that are "constantly conjoined" over time though experience (always empirically, i.e. a posteriori). That is, we assume "causality" due to seeing certain conditions play out in a similar way repeatedly.

You might also find Kant's responses to empiricism (especially Hume) helpful (cf. Critique of Pure Reason).
 
Also, wikipedia entries on philosophy (especially) are usually poor and rather sloppy. The one Blowtus referenced simply adds to the confusion and hampers substantial understanding (as is the case with "summary" generally).
 
Yeah it was from reading Hume that I couldn't seem to grasp the big deal. The wiki entry was just so folk might have an idea what I was talking about.

I can't see the apparent lack of reason in treating something as it is observed to be, it seems merely to complicate matters unnecessarily to posit that it could be otherwise. I'm not finished with Hume so perhaps it will become clear with further reading... it just feels like I'm missing something apparently obvious :)
 
Also, wikipedia entries on philosophy (especially) are usually poor and rather sloppy. The one Blowtus referenced simply adds to the confusion and hampers substantial understanding (as is the case with "summary" generally).

I second that. They are quite poor. I dont think the Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy is much better either.

Induction is one case where ancient philosophy--phryonnian skepticism--still hasnt been refuted.
 
Without some defined boundary, induction becomes a question of preference. How do we know all rocks are hard and heavy? There may be one we encounter that is not...

What is important about induction is the usefulness of observing things as they have been, and not trying for false objectivity (deduction often approaches this, because we psychologically channel our thoughts into a linearity in order to deduct).
 
There is no problem with induction. Sometimes we (as humans in a particular niche in society) are unable to perform a deductive process. For example, a factory worker might not understand the rotation, tilt, and revolution of the earth (I know this might be a stretch, but bear with me). He can't explain how the seasons happen, but he has witnessed them happen every year of his life since he was born. Therefore, he induces that the seasons will go about their natural cycle next year. Induction can never suffice for a definite argument; but in the course of everyday common sense, induction is necessary.