Do you beleive in extraterrestrial life ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

My conclusion after quite some reading (and I am not talking about pseudo-scientific stuff) is: There is a probability of extraterrestrial life, yet the chances of it being intelligent life are slim.
More importantly: The chances of any extraterrestrial intelligent life ever contacting us or us managing to contact "them" are extremely unlikely - perhaps it's impossible.
 
Don't get me wrong, I'm more leaned towards "there is a chance of life in the universe" I just don't like the usual "the universe is big, so it's almost sure it exists". If it's not infinite, say there is 1 000 000 trillion of stars in the galaxies, and somehow, the odds of creation of lifeper star are of 1 / 100 000 000 trillion, that makes it one chance out of 100 there is another life in the galaxy, which is low compared to the size of it (totally making up values).

Yet, the number would be so hard for us to get precisely, that people would go one saying "there are 1 000 000 trillion stars in the galaxy so there is no way there is no other life".

I'm just making a point here, I don't see how people can say "it's more than likely" while one of the two numbers needed to do the maths is absolutely unknown, we're not even close to know exactly how life can form. Or maybe it's something as high as 1 out of 1000 stars have life near it, but that's not proven either.


I'm one who thinks it only needs heat, carbon based elements, water, and a lot of time, but that still doesn't mean everytime you get that it would work either after all. Maybe in the process we're forgetting something unplanned which doesn't happen so often in the universe, who knows ?
 
^ thanks for those, good read. It's gonna help me back up my belief in the "early soup self replicating molecules" to a friend who think it's just silly to even think about spontaneous creation of life :)
 
On Fermi's paradox:

The main error in it is assuming that advanced civilizations will want to use radio waves for communication, will want to colonize other star systems, will want to meet other civilizations.

They may be so advanced that they simply don't feel any need to talk to us just like we don't feel the need to talk to ants or cockroaches - they already sent scouts and know about us and know that we don't pose any threat to them so they leave us alone.

Science fiction movies often exploit the idea of aliens invading to strip the Earth of all its valuable resources, but in my opinion that would not be necessary for an advanced civilization because most probably such civilization would already possess a technology to transmute simple and abundant elements into any rare elements they need.

They also would be able to terraform (not really "terra" in this case) any uninhabited planets for their use, so they just don't need to come here.
 
^ Read this shit many times years ago, so interesting.

I must say the Abiogenesis wiki page is fucking dense, I couldn't read it all one take because the amount of info is tremendous. It's insanely inspiring to see some people actually re-create lifeforms out of "complex ones" into "simpler ones" by removing DNA/RNA information to see where is the point when it just cannot work anymore, so that they can define the minimum equipement "life" needs. Or that by simple chemical reactions someone randomly found out you can en up with lipids assembled in a sphere fashion, sharing similarities with proto-lifeforms' envelopes from the early ages.

The paragraph about 500km diameters meteors that would just evaporate all water + some rock-turned-to-gas into the atmosphere, to make it rain for 3000 years, was mind blowing, too. Nothing to do with the actual problem (it just explains that there is a lower limit of the age of life because the odds of early molecules to not chemically change at such a time were too low)
 
On Fermi's paradox:

The main error in it is assuming that advanced civilizations will want to use radio waves for communication, will want to colonize other star systems, will want to meet other civilizations.

They may be so advanced that they simply don't feel any need to talk to us just like we don't feel the need to talk to ants or cockroaches - they already sent scouts and know about us and know that we don't pose any threat to them so they leave us alone.

Science fiction movies often exploit the idea of aliens invading to strip the Earth of all its valuable resources, but in my opinion that would not be necessary for an advanced civilization because most probably such civilization would already possess a technology to transmute simple and abundant elements into any rare elements they need.

They also would be able to terraform (not really "terra" in this case) any uninhabited planets for their use, so they just don't need to come here.
Well to be fair, we actually do, it's not like no studies are being made on insects or ants etc. But it's true as well it's not a good example because ants don't communicate together like we do (everyone would just know it in the hour if we met another civilization). They would just pass on because it would just add to the thousands of other civilizations (like we don't need to get interested in every ant colony once we have studied the first one) they know which by the way, could be more interesting.

About terraformming, unless they found out something we haven't, the fact it needs a hella lot of energy to terraform a planet, would make it valuable anyway to take a planet already ready to use. But yeah, that's assuming they see it the way we do, have technologies in the same plan as ours (i.e. not advanced in a way we cannot even understand etc) etc etc.

It reminds me of some problems that can be solved with energy considerations only. For example, the Star Wars I device the jedi use to breathe underwater just cannot exist no matter how advanced its design is, because the whole amount of oxygen the device encounters isn't even enough to make a human breathe correctly, and that's assuming 100% of conversion. I remember someone calculated it would need to be a few meters wide or something like that.
 
No it's not.

I'm talking about statistical probability. It is incredibly unlikely that in the billions and billions of planets out there that life only exists on ours.

No. Since space is infinite, the probability of finding life is 100%. See Sal talk about it here:
Mathematical statistics is quite a interesting topic actually, you can start predicting shit pretty accurately with just a few samples.
 
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No. Since space is infinite, the probability of finding life is 100%. See Sal talk about it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvi9A_tEmXQ
Mathematical statistics is quite a interesting topic actually, you can start predicting shit pretty accurately with just a few samples.

No, it's not proven yet. Nor that it is finite ! Nor that it is finite without boundaries (like walking on a sphere)

BTW I didn't get the video... it shows very very basic things ?
 
Lets think what would we talk about with some advanced life forms.

For example an ultimate human being at the very end of intelligently assisted evolution coming from 1 million years in the future to meet us.

About the all-problem-solving technology he could give us ?

No way :) We aren't even mature enough to use our current technology (nuclear weapons for example) without killing ourselves with it.

About our goals in life ?

LOL !

Most humans spend their energy trying to realize goals which can be simplified to finding a good job to not starve to death in a cardboard box under some bridge in the winter, a good and beautiful obedient woman, to have few children and grow old together in peace and happiness.
A total stone age...

We can't even imagine what goals such a god-like evolved being could have.
Maybe working with his/her/its friends to create a new universe in some other dimension ?
Or instantly knowing an answer to a dynamically changing equation with 1000 variables ?
Maybe writing a too complex for us to understand poem so long that it would take you or me 1000 years to read it ?

Sure the evolved being could try to teach us to be nice to each other but would we really take that knowledge or would most just dismiss it ?

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What i am trying to say is that civilizations have to be at about the same level for the communication between them to be interesting and desirable for both sides.
 
BTW I didn't get the video... it shows very very basic things ?
You have to get creative and imagine what the function could be.
See f(x) as the probability that there's life on x. Y-axis is probability, X-axis can be seen as volume of space or number of planets or whatever you want. The sum of all probabilities must be 100%, right? Integrate (find the area under the curve) f(x) with respect to x from 0 to infinite, what do you get? Answer: 100%.

Sal's raindrop example was the opposite of this.

Besides, my point was that the probability of something doesn't get less the bigger something is.
 
Except you're totally wrong about this and don't know how to read this

- f(x) is not a probability so right from the beginning of your explanation you're wrong. You wouldn't be pleased to know that the probability of "there is life on x" can only be zero, so the way you even read the curve is wrong. Unless you're doing the probabilities of probabilities but I don't think you're trying to inceptionise yourself there :D
- you cannot demonstrate something exists by saying "if i take the whole area it makes 1" since from the beginning your area makes 1 granted you're talking about probas where all options are added together makes 1 (no other alternative). It's like demonstrating the initial conditions. It's like proving what you've already said, then.
- The fact you integrate this particular f to the infinite makes 100% only means "there is 100% of chances it rains from 0 to infinite number of inches of water". Basically, in the problem of counting lives in the universe, the curve wouldn't be this very curve that was drawn for a tutorial youtube video. I don't see how you think using a specific curve is proving anything about life in the universe, since that curve is about rain and inches of rain... There are so many types of curves and all of them have properties, some being integrated to the infinite even give a finite number, others an infinite one, etc. So seriously, stop trying to see what you want to see, you're not helping your credibility when you do such things.

And AGAIN, the universe is not INFINITE until someone proves it. So far, none has done it. When it is infinite, then yes, it technically can only be possible (unless someone proves it can only be unique with some magic trick I don't know) there are an infinite number of intelligent lives. Until then, stop any kind of demonstration that relies on "the universe is infinite" because that's like proving something with something else unproven, so it has no value.
 
Ah yeah I see. Well I kinda like the fermi paradox, although I don't say it's wrong. Fermi has a point, if there were another civilization around us, there is a good chance we should be able to see it. I'm not too fan of theories stating other civilizations could have evolved to absolutely different technologies, or even evolving to energy-state lifeforms or whatever, so I'm more of those who think if another civilization has higher technologies, we would have some sort of comprehension of them if ever they would explain it to us. Maybe not in the details, but I don't think in a single galaxy you could find such a tremendous difference. Could be wrong, I just think Fermi has a point. After all, the principle of evolutions (and so far it has never been proven wrong) would apply anywhere in the world, and it would have applied to whatever lifeform they are based on, and therefore, the characteristics of "wanting to contact" or worse "wanting to dominate" could be universal as a result. Also, the base of his paradox lies uppon the fact you cannot really leave no footprint as a species when you get to that level. Radio, or other.

If anything, I think Fermi's paradox kinda makes your point. The paradox being presumable real (I don't think the statements it makes from the beginning are wrong, but it's completely up to a debate of course), it leads to the conclusions that life is either rarer than we think (the point you are trying to contradict) or that we have to rethink the universal characteristics of intelligent life (your point, which is that maybe all types of life aren't as willing to communicate as we think they would be). It's all summed up on this sentence : "Since there is no conclusive or certifiable evidence on Earth or elsewhere in the known universe of other intelligent life after 13.7 billion years of the universe's history, we have the conflict requiring a resolution. Some examples of possible resolutions are that intelligent life is rarer than we think, or that our assumptions about the general behavior of intelligent species are flawed."

Also, one of the current limits physics dictate, and so far absolutely nothing has ever contradicted it, is that no information can transit faster than the speed of light, whatever it is (speed of light is not speed of "light" but of all electromagnetic waves). Not even gravitation (there is actually currents of gravitation) is instantaneous and you can indirectly draw that conclusion from the principle that no info can travel faster than light. Therefore, so far, it's safe (or should I say safer) to assume any type of intelligence would communicate through waves of any form because in any case no other type of communication can be more efficient. When they say radio waves, they are not talking radio FM waves, but any range with frequencies good enough to reach long distances or to be practically useful to carry a message, from 0.01 Hz to ultra violet. Waves aren't a human invention, they are a tremendous part of physics itself, for things are either matter or energy, waves or particles. It's considered universal enough to imagine any type of intelligence would at least monitor it/use it. They wouldn't even need to monitor it for exploration purposes, but maybe just for monitoring purposes. Just like we do on some frequencies in modern countries and any anomaly is detected by automatic filters/computers that require a human to come check what the hell is happening. Of course people would say "but what about things we can't even imagine yet" etc etc, yes of course, but even if there were species like that, what about all the other species which are in between us and those evolved ones, surely if there are so many species there should be some who have the characteristics we expect ? So I don't think the fermi problem is uncalled for, it actually raises questions.

I think the beauty of these type of studies, as vague as they are, is that they try to think about what is universal, to create logical theories based on those solely. It's like trying to find the common denominator between us and the potentiel other intelligence, and try to read their minds, and assuming that those ones would be as logical as we are and tried to do the same. I think it's damn interesting, it's too bad it cannot get a grasp on many tangible results.

EDIT : also, what I don't like, is how some people jump right away on the "aliens are too different" or stuff like that, while there are just so many reasons why we couldn't contact them if ever they are there. I like the wiki page that lists so many possibilities to explain the paradox, and to me these sound almost like a complete list, from the "we are not listening properly" to the "they simply don't exists and we are alone" including "they are non-technological" etc etc
 
I am only saying that the silence can't be a proof or their non existence because there may be a lot of different reasons for the silence.

Also, one of the current limits physics dictate, and so far absolutely nothing has ever contradicted it, is that no information can transit faster than the speed of light, whatever it is (speed of light is not speed of "light" but of all electromagnetic waves). Not even gravitation (there is actually currents of gravitation) is instantaneous and you can indirectly draw that conclusion from the principle that no info can travel faster than light. Therefore, so far, it's safe (or should I say safer) to assume any type of intelligence would communicate through waves of any form because in any case no other type of communication can be more efficient. When they say radio waves, they are not talking radio FM waves, but any range with frequencies good enough to reach long distances or to be practically useful to carry a message, from 0.01 Hz to ultra violet. Waves aren't a human invention, they are a tremendous part of physics itself, for things are either matter or energy, waves or particles. It's considered universal enough to imagine any type of intelligence would at least monitor it/use it. They wouldn't even need to monitor it for exploration purposes, but maybe just for monitoring purposes. Just like we do on some frequencies in modern countries and any anomaly is detected by automatic filters/computers that require a human to come check what the hell is happening. Of course people would say "but what about things we can't even imagine yet" etc etc, yes of course, but even if there were species like that, what about all the other species which are in between us and those evolved ones, surely if there are so many species there should be some who have the characteristics we expect ? So I don't think the fermi problem is uncalled for, it actually raises questions.
Actually information can travel faster than light, but not via any physical medium.

For example our radio technology can very soon be replaced by quantum entanglement (Einsteins "spooky action at a distance" - one of my favorite areas of modern science) which doesn't need any physical medium or even any time to transmit data and can't reach any unwanted outside listeners.
Combine it with cybernetic brain implants and you will have techno-telepathy or even a global consciousness - no need for clumsy and unsecure radio waves anymore.
(For now the above is just science fiction of course, because to instantly teleport any information we first have to send the entangled pair of photons away from each other which of course happens at the speed of light and then read the quantum states which takes some time too.)
 
I am only saying that the silence can't be a proof or their non existence because there may be a lot of different reasons for the silence.


Actually information can travel faster than light, but not via any physical medium.

For example our radio technology can very soon be replaced by quantum entanglement (Einsteins "spooky action at a distance" - one of my favorite areas of modern science) which doesn't need any physical medium or even any time to transmit data and can't reach any unwanted outside listeners.
Combine it with cybernetic brain implants and you will have techno-telepathy or even a global consciousness - no need for clumsy and unsecure radio waves anymore.
(For now the above is just science fiction of course, because to instantly teleport any information we first have to send the entangled pair of photons away from each other which of course happens at the speed of light and then read the quantum states which takes some time too.)

For those unfamiliar - here was an article I stumbled across several years back about this very subject (your part bolded above): http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080813/full/news.2008.1038.html