Comparison of Band Popularity at Metal Festivals (x-post of Neil's work)

[Harvester]

Neil (skyrefuge) posted this over at PM:X. I thought it was rather interesting and perhaps will shed some light on things for those that have questions about band selections, roster slot (cough*theMichael*cough), etc. You should only look at the band comparison, not the festival comparison as both have different targets and budgets.

For the record, this is the first time I have heard of the data source.

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It's time for more charts and graphs! I selected three US metal festivals (ProgPowerUSA VIII, Heathen Crusade II, and Chicago Powerfest 2007) and collected data from last.fm for each band. The piece of data I used was "X listeners total" (under Weekly Top Listeners).
There are some sources of error. A "number of listeners this week" figure would probably be better, because would give the best picture of a band's popularity at a particular point in time, but it doesn't seem like they publish that. Next, last.fm has worldwide input, so differences between local and worldwide popularity can be a source of error. Finally, the community of last.fm users might not be perfectly representative of the community of festival attendees.
However, it's probably better than record sales figures, because it shows the number of people actually listening to the band.
I think the results are pretty interesting. Here are some highlights:
- Sonata Arctica is HUGE. They almost have more listeners than all the other bands combined.
- ProgPower's lineup has big numbers throughout. 8 of 10 bands have more than 3000 listeners, while Heathen Crusade was 3 of 18 in that category, and Chicago PowerFest is 3 of 9.
- The PPUSA running order matches the numbers perfectly. There are no less-popular bands playing after a more-popular band. That makes me wonder, does Glenn use this last.fm methodology?
- Similarly, HC was pretty well-ordered, but CPF is all over the map (perhaps Novembers Doom's draw is lower locally because they play in Chicago more often)
Here are the charts of each festival posted individually, and then one of them combined, so you can get an idea of how the scales vary between them.
Some figures for reference:
Iron Maiden - 215,114
Nightwish - 169,574
In Flames - 160,092

Wish me luck at the science fair this weekend!

Neil

 

[Heavenly Call]

Wow, extremely interesting. I'm a little surprised by firewing getting more plays than Pagan's mind...and contrary to what's posted, that IS a difference in the line-up and listens. Very interesing and THANKS for posting that!

 

[Petethedrummer]

wow very cool!

kind of validates the lineup this year, not that I had any doubts.

 

[dcowboys311]

Wow, extremely interesting. I'm a little surprised by firewing getting more plays than Pagan's mind...and contrary to what's posted, that IS a difference in the line-up and listens. Very interesing and THANKS for posting that!

I'm not really that surprised that Firewind has so many listeners. A lot of people use the last.fm radio function to find new bands similar to those that they already listen to, and I'm sure that many of the Firewind plays come in from people with Arch Enemy and Dream Evil in their top artists since Gus G has played for both of those bands.

Either way, this data is pretty interesting.

 

[dcowboys311]

Oh, and also:

Symphony X - 24,876 listeners total
Angra - 31,347 listeners total
Stratovarius - 61,421 listeners total
Helloween - 68,346 listeners total
Dragonforce - 81,488 listeners total
Sonata Arctica - 92,342 listeners total
Blind Guardian - 99,265 listeners total

Like the original post says, there is error in the figures to see how popular the bands reall are worldwide, but this kind of shoots down all the people complaining how Sonata isn't big enough to headline.

 

[Petethedrummer]

Wowww surprised that dragonforce is so low, comparatively.

I had assumed they became more popular with the masses.

 

[Harvester]

Remember folks..this is a snapshot. If a band hasn't put out a new disc or dvd in several years, aren't considered a classic from the 80s, or some sort of news reminds the public of them, then I don't think you are will see a realistic measure of popularity. My example is Symphony X who hasn't put something out in five years. I say go back and check the numbers again a month after it is out or once they hit the tour scene again.

 

[J-Man]

Damn it looks like Glenn really does his homework, and because of this brings Quality to us every year. Thanks Glenn for a super job year after year.

 

[Braxil]

Last.fm is great, this is an interesting way of putting their data to use. The numbers are always going to be skewed by how long it's been since an album came out as Glenn said, but whether or not an artist is available to play on the last.fm radio is also a big factor.

 

[mtndewqueen88]

I adore Last.fm actually, and use it to track my own listening habits. For example, I had no idea how much I really enjoyed Angra's Temple of Shadows until I saw it began to dominate my charts!
And dcowboys311, good idea figuring in past headliners for comparison. I wonder if there are other services similar to last.fm that would could also use for data collection?

 

[Michael TEOF]

Neil (skyrefuge) posted this over at PM:X. I thought it was rather interesting and perhaps will shed some light on things for those that have questions about band selections, roster slot (cough*theMichael*cough), etc. You should only look at the band comparison, not the festival comparison as both have different targets and budgets.

I think you're proving my point Glenn. Sonata Arctica own the rest of the bands on that roster -- including After Forever, who a better/bigger band should be headlining in place of like Dragonforce, Helloween, or a variety of others *no direspect to After Forever intended*. When I was in Disney World, of all places, I was having breakfast with my brother and his son. The waitress actually ASKED me if I would leave my Sonata Arctica - Reckoning Night tour t-shirt instead of a tip. That's when I knew something was up... well that and when I saw them on tour the place was packed and going nuts.

Don't mind me Glenn... I'm just disappointed Dragonforce wasn't headlining this year. *sigh* Maybe next.

The Michael

PS: After review of the Prog Power DVD (which is great by the way), I noticed that some bands are better than others about the hihat tap. Epica and Circus Maximus could have ruined many a moment with one of those cheesy rhythmic instruments *TSH TSH TSH TSH!* during some quiet sections that built in momentum to rocking. They did not.

PPS: Everybody do the dah doo!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag426HF_ud8

 

[Petethedrummer]

PS: After review of the Prog Power DVD (which is great by the way), I noticed that some bands are better than others about the hihat tap. Epica and Circus Maximus could have ruined many a moment with one of those cheesy rhythmic instruments *TSH TSH TSH TSH!* during some quiet sections that built in momentum to rocking. They did not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag426HF_ud8

waaaaaaait.....we're still talking about this???

 

[VenomGA]

THis proves GLenn is the genius we all thought he was.

 

[Azrael LenGraden]

Statistics and Metal... what a combo!

 

[skyrefuge]

ha, I'm happy to see all the other nerds out there who can appreciate this. I was thinking that I should x-post it here eventually, so how nice to see that Glenn took care of the trouble for me!

Some notes:

I'm not sure how I missed that fact that Firewind messes up the popularity/lineup sorting. I guess I must be so convinced of Glenn's infallibility that I didn't even check it that carefully!

About the "snapshot" view that's provided....I'm not entirely sure what the period of time is for last.fm's "total listeners" number. It's pretty long though, at least 6 months, and maybe as long as the whole history of last.fm. Certainly if a band's last album came out before last.fm even really got started, then they'd be under-represented. But if last.fm is around for another 10 years (and the "total listeners" covers that entire period), then a band who doesn't release another album within those 10 years will probably be over-represented (at least if we're trying to answer the question "how many people will this band draw to a concert?"). That's why the ideal time period for the "total listeners" stat would be the current week (or maybe month, to ensure enough listeners), but they don't seem to provide that data.

In the same vein, it would be nice to go back and do this for previous PPUSA lineups, but it wouldn't really make any sense because we'd be using today's numbers. What we would really need to do is get the "total listeners" data from the year in which the lineup was announced.

Finally, do you guys have any sources for your view that last.fm radio has a large impact? Personally I've never even used it, so of course I think that nobody else does, but I wouldn't have even guessed that those plays are scrobbled.

Neil

 

[Braxil]

Finally, do you guys have any sources for your view that last.fm radio has a large impact? Personally I've never even used it, so of course I think that nobody else does, but I wouldn't have even guessed that those plays are scrobbled.

Neil

The plays are indeed scrobbled. The reason I said it has a major impact is because of the various tools such as neighbor radio, recommendation radio, etc, that will only play artists who have tracks available on the radio service.

 

[edgeofthorns]

Interesting stuff indeed Glenn.

Oh yeah, Michael, I can't watch a freakin' live DVD now without noticing the hihat taps before songs! :zombie: I was watching the Kamelot DVD last night and sure enough, right after the main intro, tsh, tsh, tsh, BOOM!!!! It honestly doesn't bother me, but I can't help from cracking up now at it!

~Brian~