Glenn Dyer @ crikey.com.au:
"Millions of Australians will lose from Tony Abbott's idea of taxing profitable companies to pay for his exaggerated version of the baby bonus.
People with superannuation, either in managed funds, run by retail or industry groups, or self- managed, will be the hardest hit, along with investors holding shares directly.
Big companies such as Telstra will be impacted at a time when its share price is already under pressure. With the Future Fund (Australian taxpayers), still owning a swag of shares in the company, we all will suffer.
In all the commentary about the absurdity of Abbott's 1.7% levy on the profits of Australia's 3000 most profitable companies such as in the Fairfax broadsheets this morning, one very, very important point has been lost.
There's has a lot of talk about the impact on costs and prices and employment. But that's marginal issues. The $2.7 billion a year, $11 billion-plus four-year cost of his idea will predominantly come from shareholders, which include nearly every one of the more than 10-plus million working people in this country.
According to Australian Stock Exchange figures "retail investors directly own slightly less than 20% of all listed equities, with domestic institutions owning slightly less than 40% and foreign investors slightly more than 40%."
So about 60% of all shares on the ASX are owned by Australians, one way or another, and these are concentrated in the four big banks, BHP and Rio Tinto, Woolworths, Wesfarmers, the AMP, AXA, Telstra and others with a market capitalisation of $1 billion or more, which in turn account for 90% of the market's valuation.
According to the ASX at the "end of 2009, a total of 175 companies had a market capitalisation greater than $1 billion, with 385 companies between $100 million-$1 billion, 534 companies between $20 million-$100 million and 855 companies below $20 million.
The companies valued below $20 million are unprofitable or barely profitable miners and small industrials. The bulk of the companies that will pay the tax are in the next groups, right to the 175 worth $1 billion or more, which is where investors concentrate.
This has been ignored by political commentators in the big papers and electronic media. (They are as removed from the real world of business as Abbott).
What they don't understand is that the easiest way for profitable companies to pay the tax will be to either cut dividends, or not increase them, even if profits are rising.
While some groups (accountants mainly) are saying companies can restructure to save tax, the stamp duty costs of doing this these days is prohibitive. The easiest way is simply to either cut dividends, or not increase them. Much easier than pushing up prices.
This will apply to all listed companies, as well as private groups. All make distributions one way or another. The listed companies make them to shareholders, which in most cases include super funds, both retail, industry and self-managed funds.
Other investors own shares in their own right and will lose directly. Self-funded retirees will be hurt more than anyone because they depend more on dividends for their income than do wage earners.
Because he will be taking earnings from companies, their share prices will be impacted, their prices will fall or no rise by as much because their dividend yields and price earnings ratios will be adversely impact. They are crucial measurements for investors in assessing the worth of listed companies as an investment.
Companies will underperform the market, which will underperform as a whole each year because $1 billion to $2 billion a year in earnings are being stripped out by this odd new tax.
Investors will take their money from the market (or not commit as much), to invest in other riskier or lower taxed investments."
Basically, if Abbot goes into the poll with this as a policy, he will be destroyed.