american eagle does make really cute mini skirts tho.
you'd love this one second hand place in brooklyn. it's the best one i've ever been to.
you'd love this one second hand place in brooklyn. it's the best one i've ever been to.
laws of probability: NOT ON MY SIDE
- Thread starter minxnim
- Start date
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
Should I buy this shirt for school where just about everyone does wear their collar up and if so, what color?
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
The choices are white, yellow (NO!), heather gray, tan, and light blue.
I'm thinking light blue but then again, I don't know what heather grey is.
I'm thinking light blue but then again, I don't know what heather grey is.
heather gray is good, it's the kind of gray that's not solid but has bits of white scattered in it. i'd go with that.
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
xfer
I JERK OFF TO ARCTOPUS
ebay shirts, especially of bands like led zeppelin, unfortunately tend towards having gross sweat stains.
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
True, you run all kinds of risks purchasing on ebay, you have to really want the shirt and just be willing to deal sometimes. I've yet to be screwed though, well, on ebay.
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
azal
love is the answer
xfer said:
I ordered a Queensryche Mindcrime tour shirt like 5 years ago frm EBAY. When it arrived it was so disgusting that I just made it into a rag and polished my moms mini van with it.
Draft Dodging Scarecrow
Year of Mao Zedong
FalseTodd
Skirt Wizard
0sm0se said:
Only if each trial is examined in isolation. Her overall probability of failure over 13 trials is ...whatevertheshizz i said before
0sm0se
Mr. Negativity
and I'm saying in the scheme of the universe, if she were to have opened 12 consecutive bottles right after they came out of the factory where they are produced, then your probability would be correct. Each bottle opening is an independent event because the bottles she is opening are unrelated to each other except in that she opened them all. Even if she is buying each bottle at the same store at random times of day, you have to account for other customers purchasing the same item. I'm saying that she is picking a bottle from a different batch every time. The best way I can explain it is if there are twelve groups of twelve bottles each, what is the probability she will draw the winner from any of the groups? That is her probability of winning, setting up an independent event for each opening.
FalseTodd
Skirt Wizard
I'm pretty sure we're just talking past each other, but just in case:
yes there is an independent event on each opening - but my probability *was* based on each one being an independent event...if you have some expected event and you want to calculate the probability of it occuring once over a given number of trials (in this case a 1 in 12 event over 13 trials) you could also say that you are testing for the probability of this not occurring, i.e. 13 unrelated events occurring in a particular fashion in a row...in this case 13 non-winners occuring one after the other. Probability of one non-winner * probability of one non-winner ..... etc until you get to 13. (11/12)^13 = .3242
At 26 bottles Minx is suffering from the effects of severe sugar overload and massive caffiene overdose, and has an overall chance of failure of (11/12)^26, or 10.4%. At 50 bottles, 1.3%. As her pool of soda bottles grows and grows and she stands, bleary eyed and shaking, barely human atop of mountain of empty mountain dew containers, her chance of never getting a single winner is asymptotic with 0.
yes there is an independent event on each opening - but my probability *was* based on each one being an independent event...if you have some expected event and you want to calculate the probability of it occuring once over a given number of trials (in this case a 1 in 12 event over 13 trials) you could also say that you are testing for the probability of this not occurring, i.e. 13 unrelated events occurring in a particular fashion in a row...in this case 13 non-winners occuring one after the other. Probability of one non-winner * probability of one non-winner ..... etc until you get to 13. (11/12)^13 = .3242
At 26 bottles Minx is suffering from the effects of severe sugar overload and massive caffiene overdose, and has an overall chance of failure of (11/12)^26, or 10.4%. At 50 bottles, 1.3%. As her pool of soda bottles grows and grows and she stands, bleary eyed and shaking, barely human atop of mountain of empty mountain dew containers, her chance of never getting a single winner is asymptotic with 0.
Helm
Maybe on Luna
Helm
Maybe on Luna
