1) i got into this early enough that it's pretty much a Sure Thing(tm) if i monitor the situation closely and get out in time*
* feel free to rub it in later when this statement blows up in my face. also: this is dependent on the powers that be letting the free market do its thing which is far from guaranteed at this point
well, i'm out, and i lost about $2000 which stings a little, but is no big deal in the grand scheme of things. mostly i'm glad not to fuckin obsess about it anymore.
at the peak i was up about $4000. i started having serious doubts about the validity of this whole thing around monday, but still didn't get out because it didn't seem that bad yet and i was still in the green. thought maybe the momentum would carry it a bit further. if i had gotten out monday before close i would have still made a little money. unfortunately when the market was closed monday night it dipped BAD and got to a point where i was in the red. this is when i should have sold, but i didn't.
i think the theory was sound at first but conditions changed rapidly. for instance, when the hedge funds announced they had mostly closed out their positions i assumed that they were lying and that the new short interest numbers reported were false. reddit kept repeating that the trading volume and price movement did not reflect shorts exiting en masse and i drank that kool-aid without actually looking at the numbers myself. in fact, the volumes were more than enough for them to exit bit by bit over the course of these several days. i now absolutely believe that the hedge funds closed all their positions that would enable the squeeze.
i had promised to get out when the sentiment around reddit changed but i was not smart or quick enough to act when it actually started happening. oldest story ever told, i'm sure.
i've learned a few important lessons here and i think i should count my blessings that i learned them for only $2000, because it could have been much worse:
* mainstream media as a whole is either completely shit at their jobs or malicious -- at least when it suits their purposes. i mean, i know this is not exactly an earth-shattering revelation, but some folks really showed their true colors during these events
* i was dimly aware that the decks were stacked against us, but i was not really aware of how or why. these days have shown that very clearly. most important is the asymmetry of information. retail traders simply do not get to learn the facts that they need to make rational decisions. during this entire week we had no credible information on the short interest, which was, you know, the entire basis of the thing we were trying to do. they only have to report them every other week, and even so i understand it is possible to use smoke and mirrors to hide the real numbers to some extent. even if we did know the SI, we don't know what the exact positions are. were they bought at $4? at $300? no idea. i have no doubt the stock is still shorted to shit, but they are new shorts that are intended to cover for the losses incurred on the old, toxic ones.
* i am not as immune as i thought to being caught up in these cult-like echo chambers that tend to form on the internet when people refuse to wake up and smell the coffee. you know, i can sit here and laugh at qanon and the flat earthers and whatnot but towards the end, this was approaching that, and at least for a while i was kind of going along with it. on WSB, everyone who wasn't a true believer was instantly downvoted. i mean it's fun to get dragged along with a wave of success and fucking over The Man but it quickly turns pretty unpleasant when it turns out that reality doesn't agree with the narrative anymore. i will try and approach shit like this with more caution henceforth and try to recognize the signs of a situation turning sour.
at least i was a part of history, ya know? $69,420 is not a meme