There are plenty of paths to a Biden victory. Nixon's first term looked similarly chaotic and questionable before ending with a landslide victory, but Nixon deployed National Guard to stop riots, unilaterally ended the gold standard to prevent foreign draining of reserves, and overall never publicly flinched when his authority was questioned. Trump talks a good talk but aside from more abstract things like federal judges, he has virtually nothing to show for it in results aside from a few new miles of shitty border fence. Things could go anywhere from 333-205 Trump-Biden to approximately the opposite depending on countless factors including reopening of the economy, a second wuflu wave, both sides' response to riots and how long they continue for, etc.
Trump's saving grace in 2016 was his brash language and his near-total refusal to moderate himself, but those qualities faded as president. There's also the fact that the white share of the voting population has declined enough on its own to lose narrow-margin states, assuming identical turnouts. Trump banking on a few more percentage points worth of black voters saving him is a retarded move. Nixon in fact made the exact same move but had the sense to abandon it in 1972 when increasing welfare spending 5-fold and desegregating most schools yielded zero electoral dividends in polls. There's also the fact that hype is short-lasting, meaning turnout will probably decline among the critical populations; Obama lost half of the new black turnout in 2012 that he enjoyed in 2008, for example. Trump isn't a "historical moment" president anymore. The thing going for him the most is that he's running against radical leftists, and the silence of Biden, Klobuchar, etc in the wake of these riots hurts them more than Trump running his mouth ever will.
