Scientists Adjust `Doomsday Clock' as Threat Grows

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Jul 7, 2006
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By Alex Morales

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Scientists today moved the minute- hand on the symbolic ``Doomsday Clock'' to five minutes to midnight, to indicate growing concerns about the global nuclear threat.

The clock was set up in 1947 with a time of seven minutes to midnight, and movement of the minute-hand symbolizes growing or declining threat, with midnight representing destruction by nuclear war. For almost five years, the hand has stood where it began, at seven minutes to midnight. It has only been moved 17 times before, fluctuating between 2 and 17 minutes to midnight.

The hand was moved forward two minutes today, reflecting concerns that the world is heading toward ``a second nuclear age,'' and also that climate change poses a threat to stability, said Kennette Benedict, executive director of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the magazine which set up the clock in 1947.

``Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices,'' Benedict said in a conference call with reporters, reading from the board's statement. ``We stand on the brink of a second nuclear age.''

The scientists decided to adjust the clock because of reasons including the perceived nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, unsecured nuclear materials in Russia, and the continued ``launch-ready'' status of arms in the U.S. and Russia.

Sanctions

``North Korea's recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed U.S. emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are symptomatic of a larger failure to solve the problems posed by the most destructive technology on Earth,'' the board said in its statement, published on the bulletin's Web site.

The United Nations on Dec. 23 imposed sanctions on Iran, following allegations by the U.S. that the Islamic Republic was using nuclear-power plans to disguise a weapons program, a violation of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. North Korea tested its first nuclear bomb Oct. 9, leading to a UN Security Council resolution banning sales of military equipment and luxury goods to the east Asian nation.

``Despite global efforts to reduce nuclear dangers, the leaders of North Korea and Iran are pushing at the hands of the doomsday clock,'' Ambassador Gregory Schulte, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said today in an e-mailed statement. ``Keeping dangerous technologies out of dangerous hands, whether terrorists or outlaw regimes, is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century.''

Sept. 11, 2001

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists covers security issues and was founded following the nuclear bombings in 1945 of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, by scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project that developed America's nuclear weapons. The destruction of the two Japanese cities led to more than 300,000 deaths and Japan's surrender in World War II.

Changes to the clock are decided by the bulletin's board of directors, which consults with a board of sponsors that includes Stephen Hawking, Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, who spoke at today's press conference.

``The world has been uncomfortably close to disaster on more than one occasion,'' said Hawking, who suffers from motor-neuron disease and speaks through a synthesizer. ``As we stand at the brink of a second nuclear age and unprecedented climate change, scientists have a special responsibility'' to inform the public and governments about threats, he said.

Climate Change

When assessing the threat, the scientists examine advances in nuclear technology as well as issues such as smuggling of nuclear materials, diplomatic developments and the inequality between rich and poor, because of the potential it has to lead to violence and conflict. The threat posed by climate change was a deciding factor in today's decision, Benedict said.

``The dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons,'' Benedict said. ``The effects may be less dramatic in the short term than the destruction that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause drastic harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival.''

Many scientists say man-made emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide are causing the atmosphere to heat up, melting glaciers and ice caps, causing sea levels to rise, and increasing so-called extreme weather events such as storms and droughts.

Since the end of the Cold War and break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, this is the fourth time the clock's minute hand has been advanced.

The last time the clock was changed was Feb. 27, 2002, when it was advanced two minutes from nine to midnight to seven to midnight. The bulletin's board made the move after events including the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that hit New York and Washington, and a statement by the administration of President George W. Bush that it would withdraw from the Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty, a pact with Russia aimed at reducing nuclear proliferation. It pulled out in June 2002.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: January 17, 2007 12:21 EST


So, the London Stock Exchange, New York and Tokyo are all primary targets. Fun. Any thoughts?
 
Yea..we don't need a clock to represent how humanity is gradually dooming itself. :p
This reminds me of our Homeland Security Advisory system... the threat level is now in between mauve and salmon pink...time to hit the bunkers!

And Anvil, if anything serious happens, I'm not really sure where I would go. :erk:
 
The Scientists reffered to in the article are actually these guys.

scientists_photo3.jpg