I know a lot of people expect the cable debates to be Trump's saving grace over Biden, but I think they will be far more slanted against him than the 2016 ones already were. If anything the lack of audience/remote moderation for wuflu concerns will only be used against Trump. Not to mention that it won't be a theatrical event anymore; just go back to the one Biden vs Sanders wuflu debate and see how difficult it is to watch from a purely aesthetic point of view.
After today's I'd say
1. Debate was definitely and obviously slanted against Trump, and this was the FOX guy, will only get worse from here. The next moderator is a former intern of Biden's, lol.
2. The stage/audience issues of the Biden/Sanders debate were fixed and it was perfectly watchable from an aesthetic standpoint, which might help keep viewership high-ish.
3. Wuflu was clearly and obviously a weak point for Trump, though it would be for any candidate in the same position.
4. The tax section was his worst showing and at one point he seemed to accidentally blame Biden for not reversing Trump's tax cuts, though maybe I misheard it or the whole thing was too dry to be bothered with.
5. Trump showed full energy and I'd argue even seemed sharp in terms of recalling specific details in a way that surpassed any of his HRC debates (though there was no "Because you'd be in jail" moment). Some of his jabs seemed excessive and pointless (like calling Biden "number two") but that's his style so probably doesn't matter.
6. Based Trump Proud Boys energy. That being said, while I'm not sure the Proud Boys boogieman will scare that many independents/non-whites, I'm a little surprised he didn't make at least a slightly more substantial defense of himself, e.g. mentioning that Proud Boys have literally murdered no one during a demonstration since their conception, whereas antifa have murdered several just since May. The controversy will perhaps give him a better angle to force that next debate, but it also gives Dems an opportunity for a schizo gunman/bomber to kill people in the name of the Proud Boys. But again, I like the ballsiness of the move, almost zero deference given to anti-white propaganda.
7. Despite all of that, Biden was fairly sharp too, far better energy than he had on the big primary stage, his slip-ups were relatively short, and Rep hopes of a total Biden collapse were clearly unjustified.
8. I think the "from Scranton" angle could have seemed fake if Trump didn't explicitly attack Biden for coming from a less prestigious school, which only feeds into the blue-collar Irish-Catholic Biden image. "I don't know anything about Beau" also seemed unnecessary when he already hit on Hunter and the Russia money multiple times. So in terms of how Trump framed Biden's character, I think it was a failure, and since a big chunk of swing/independent voters tend to place emphasis on the "would have a beer with" factor, that goes doubly.
9. Because Trump needs a big boost and Biden only needed to show up and look conscious, Biden arguably still came out ahead in the net and I doubt the debate did much to change people's minds.
10. The largely-negative response to the debate hints at potential voter fatigue, which will help Trump since his base is more fanatical. Additionally, Telemundo is saying that two thirds of Hispanic viewers thought Trump won just on machismo factor, and with other polls hinting at least a slight Hispanic vote, that could be his winning hope is he has one at all.
Overall, enjoyed it a lot, mostly just for the shit-flinging. Looking forward to the next two, and dreading the Pence vs Harris debate (though I'll give it a shot). Within everything else considered I don't see Trump winning the election but fingers crossed.