Watching a news program yesterday got me thinking about something. The Japanese media is doing a good job in presenting many aspects of the potential impact this 'war on terrorism' may have.
In this report, they talked about the heroin industry in Afghanistan. 70% of the worlds heroin comes from Afghanistan (I thought a little more came from Myanmar, but I guess not) and then is smuggled out through Pakistan, and distributed to the rest of the world. Three centres represent the bulk of poppies harvested, the largest of wich is to the Nw of Kandahar. Poopy seed are reduced to a raw material called 'ahen' which is then processed outside the country.
I think we can all safely assume that the agriculture industry in Afghanistan has probably been thoroughly disrupted by the current state of affairs. Which leads me to postipulate that perhaps very soon there will be a squeeze: a massive, worldwide heroin shortage. Reprocussions will include a noticable increase in domestic crime, and a rise in deaths among drug users as people will begin to receive low quality 'cut' product.
Depending on one's perspective, this could be a good or bad thing....
Presuming tha tthe US is successful in its current campaign, and at the end of the day a new government is set up along the guidelines discussed by Powell and the Pakistani president, without proper economic subsidization it is foreseeable that black market economy will be the only way for many Afghans to support themselves (especially seeing as the country will be starting from ground zero with absolutely nothing) and the world will one again be back in heroin. But it's possible that the US will keep their thumb on it, with lots of ATF agents acting as a secondary police force. But in the meanitime, we still have our current problem at hand.
In this report, they talked about the heroin industry in Afghanistan. 70% of the worlds heroin comes from Afghanistan (I thought a little more came from Myanmar, but I guess not) and then is smuggled out through Pakistan, and distributed to the rest of the world. Three centres represent the bulk of poppies harvested, the largest of wich is to the Nw of Kandahar. Poopy seed are reduced to a raw material called 'ahen' which is then processed outside the country.
I think we can all safely assume that the agriculture industry in Afghanistan has probably been thoroughly disrupted by the current state of affairs. Which leads me to postipulate that perhaps very soon there will be a squeeze: a massive, worldwide heroin shortage. Reprocussions will include a noticable increase in domestic crime, and a rise in deaths among drug users as people will begin to receive low quality 'cut' product.
Depending on one's perspective, this could be a good or bad thing....
Presuming tha tthe US is successful in its current campaign, and at the end of the day a new government is set up along the guidelines discussed by Powell and the Pakistani president, without proper economic subsidization it is foreseeable that black market economy will be the only way for many Afghans to support themselves (especially seeing as the country will be starting from ground zero with absolutely nothing) and the world will one again be back in heroin. But it's possible that the US will keep their thumb on it, with lots of ATF agents acting as a secondary police force. But in the meanitime, we still have our current problem at hand.
