And finally, how about a summary?
I think a band's chances of success can be broken down into three components: talent, hard work, and luck.
Let's say that it's 25% talent, 25% hard work, and 50% luck.
There's really nothing you can do to change your talent or your luck, so right off the bat, most of your chance at success is already out of your hands. But, 25% of it is still in your control, if you want to work hard.
So, for bands who are not blessed with natural talent and who haven't fallen into good luck, but still want to make a go of it and control their own destiny as much as they can, hard work is the only avenue left. You see this in sports all the time...the running back who succeeded not because he was fast, or big, but because he wanted it the most and worked the hardest to achieve it.
For those with plenty of luck and talent, they don't even need to tap the hard work component, they can achieve success without it.
One thing you always hear about Michael Jordan was that he was unsurpassable because he was both the most talented *and* the hardest worker.
So, when God rolled the d8s and d10s and d20s, Agalloch got a full 25 points in the talent component and 40 in the luck component. Blackguard got 1 in the talent component and 25 in the luck component. Even if Blackguard works as hard as they possibly can and tours their ass off (for a full 25), and Agalloch doesn't do a damn thing (for 0 pts.), the totals still come to 65 for Agalloch and 51 for Blackguard. Agalloch wins, and Blackguard never has a chance.
However, Swashbuckle also has 1 in the talent component and 25 in the luck component. If they only put in enough hard work to score a 15, that gives them 41, which means that a hard-working Blackguard can beat Swashbuckle. Maybe that keeps Blackguard in the game long enough for their luck to change.
You might say that some of the hard work should go into creating better music rather than touring, but hard work can only improve your music a very small amount. Most of it is dependent on your talent score, and thus, out of your control.
So again, touring can't make *all* the difference for a band and is certainly no guarantee of success. But it *can* make a difference, and since it's the one component of success that a band has control over, that's why you see them pushing it. For a band that maxes out their hard work, and still fails to achieve success, it doesn't mean that maxing out their hard work was a bad idea. It just means that they didn't have enough luck or talent to make it. If they hadn't worked hard, their chances would have been even lower.
Neil