Right on, i think innovation does not at all equal originality, and innovation itself is often merely a beginning of something bigger and yet-to-come, and not the actual peak of quality and originality.
Refinement (well chosen word!) is a long process of expanding upon innovations, and i think there is more true and definitive genius in
synthesis of all the innovations and traditions (pretty much what Mikael is doing) than in being first to do something. Thus understood, these innovations are often more like a matter of circumstance and context, of "right moment", rather than genuine creative authenticity...
In comparison to the past, i would say that the best and the most sophisticated bands of the day have refined early sound of metal quite a lot. Pose and typical gestures have turned into reserved, well balanced and quite noble philosophy. I take Opeth, Agalloch or Katatonia very personally. I see Kveldssanger (and consider it metal!; not heavy metal but metal) as a form of wisdom, and a true art as well. All this to say that things still happen and will happen, its only a matter of having dedication to listen and catch the right frequencies so to speak. At the same time, a lot of generic, genre rooted music will provide a base for original achievements to come forth. Also, as noted by soundave, music can be pure genre and great as such! Theres no need to break the mold violently, wanted results wont come that way surely...
However, i can see that a genre or a style can be exhausted when it comes to creative possibilities. Furthermore, reception, the way the audience listens to the music can become completely stale and conventional (i often get that impression when attending or watching classical music concerts). What i like about metal is its non-conformity. But when attempted at any cost it will turn out to be the opposite. In metal, being rebellious may often imply readiness to be "whiny" and soft-hearted.
Anyway, i do understand the notion that metal might be dying out, but i think many people hold that standpoint because they stubbornly want to believe in myth of decaying of all modern, as opposed to "good old times" and such, rather than draw the conclusions critically... I for one am happy with how metal is today, there are enough bands that i perceive to be original, and, besides, i personally care about good music more than metal... It all comes down to liking or disliking what one hears, after all...
A funny sidenote:
http://www.allmusic.com/cg/amg.dll?p=amg&sql=10:w9fqxzykldje
Look at the "themes" section in the description of this album (just to the left of the tracklist)... "Themes: Guys night out, Late night, Hanging out", lol what the fuck is that!!! :Smokin: