HamburgerBoy
Active Member
- Sep 16, 2007
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All Hillary had to do was make a concession of sorts and allow Sanders in as VP. But noooooooo, she just had to choose Kaine because he did her a favor, so she now owed him a favor.
2016 Presidential Election
- Thread starter The Ozzman
- Start date
CiG
Approximately Infinite Universe
Elric of Melniboné
The White Wolf
- Jul 11, 2016
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Dak
mentat
A. I called it during the primaries, after only 3 Republican primary contests, only 2 of which Trump won, 1 being New Hampshire which was written off as a Yankee win. Calling a Trump win was far, far from 50/50.
B. Voting patterns aren't as simple as a coin flip, even in a General Election.
C. Certain different analyses have to be the correct to predict Sanders performing better, separate from calling a Trump win in the primaries.
D. What does Vegas have to do with anything? Is Nate Silver a regular or something?
Baroque
Active Member
Ok mister stats genius, why not start 539.com and show the world your infallible methodology, since your correct guess is a clear indicator that you knew better than everyone.
CiG
Approximately Infinite Universe
Draehl
Lurker
Just gonna drop this in here. As a more libertarian leaning person this struck a chord with me why Trump won and how the left is pushing people away. I remain very cautiously optimistic about Trump.
CiG
Approximately Infinite Universe
Dak
mentat
I never claimed it was generalize-able (or based on stats). And I didn't know better than everyone; Scott Adams was an influence. But I knew that oversampling Democrats and polling the same people (and not new voters) over and over was poor methodology in this election. Which is what was admitted after the fact.
HamburgerBoy
Active Member
- Sep 16, 2007
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J.
Old Fart
My reasoning for voting Trump is simple: He stood as a symbol against this ridiculous PC culture, entitled generation of brats, and wasn't kissing the bootheels of every minority under the sun.
Dak
mentat
I read a lot of pollster apologies the day after, not sure of who said which or both.
Satanstoenail
My Larpstyle determines my Derpstyle
Matt
Active Member
I had a feeling that this would come up on here lol.
A lot of things happened between my comments and the election though. The FBI/Comey intervention a week before the election, Wikileaks and the email 'scandal', plus a massive planning failure on the part of the Clinton campaign. They didn't mobilize their base enough either and just assumed that the blue belt was theirs and it clearly was up for contention.
Sucks being wrong, and it really sucks to have a bumbling demagogue in the White House, but whatever.
A lot of things happened between my comments and the election though. The FBI/Comey intervention a week before the election, Wikileaks and the email 'scandal', plus a massive planning failure on the part of the Clinton campaign. They didn't mobilize their base enough either and just assumed that the blue belt was theirs and it clearly was up for contention.
Sucks being wrong, and it really sucks to have a bumbling demagogue in the White House, but whatever.
Dak
mentat
Taking the rust belt for granted was a major error, but I don't think the email issue decided the election. From what I recall of the exit polling most people already knew who they would vote for. Even looking at facebook or on here for anecdotal reference, Hillary supporters think it's just a 'scandal' and non-Hillary supporters are livid about the issue for one reason or another.
CiG
Approximately Infinite Universe
Yeah it's quite true that Hillary supporters in places I frequent practically dismissed the whole email thing as essentially a witch-hunt with little importance.
lovegd
New Metal Member
