Best time of the year: NFL Week 1 Predictions!

[Belligerent]

Redskins @ Giants: Giants
Lions @ Falcons: Falcons
Bengals @ Ravens: Bengals
Seahawks @ Bills: Seahawks
Jets @ Dolphins: Jets
Chiefs @ Patriots: Patriots
Buccanneers @ Saints: Saints
Rams @ Eagles: Eagles
Texans @ Steelers: Steelers
Jaguars @ Titans: Titans
Cowboys @ Browns: Cowboys
Panthers @ Chargers: Chargers
Cardinals @ 49ers: Cardinals
Bears @ Colts: Colts (sadly, Bears haven't beat Manning in 8yrs)
Vikings @ Packers: Packers
Broncos @ Raiders: Broncos

 

[muzmaze]

I bet every year for last 3 years and always the pointspread... but i never bet the first week and sometimes not even the 2nd week... i want to see how they perform those first week or 2 first before i decide to bet on the spreads or else your betting blindly.

...waiting a bit is very logical.


@ Achrisk.
You can also bet the over-under...the total combined score of the two teams. Obviously weather is a major factor here.
A good proposition can be a Parlee...were you bet two things , say the line along with over-under. If you hit on both you can get double winnings and if you lose you only pay the dbl juice.
ex.100$ on the Pats and the over...win its 200$, lose pay 120$ as opposed too 110$ on a straight bet.

 

[Unfaithfully Metalhead]

...waiting a bit is logical.

also not betting every game is logical yet there are people who bet every game or too many games in a weekend... should only bet when the pointspread is "not correct"... most of the time the bookies are balancing their books (moving the pointspread up or down)so equal amounts of money are bet on both the Favorites and the Dogs... so the bookie can make his vig (commission)... and not be lopsided on bets... thats when you bet on a game when the bookie does not care whether the spread is "correct" and only wants to balance his books by moving the spread up or down.... when he moves the PS too much like he did with the superbowl.. i bet the Giants as the Dogs.. not because I thought they would win but because I thought they would lose by fewer points then what the spread was because by end of season the Patriots were obviously very tired and letting each team they were playing in the end get closer and closer in points when a Dog lost... of course the Giants won so i won the bet... and made a nice profit...

 

[muzmaze]

Yup.
If you like a fave... bet right when the line comes out. Blind betters will pound the favorites, forcing the book to move the number higher.

Like the 'dog...wait til as late as possible to place.

Agree also on not betting across the board. Pick 1 or 2 games that you really like...maye 1 pro and 1 college and go with it.

 

[Matt]

Just copy paste my format if you want and discuss the upcoming start of the 2008 NFL football season! It's finally here!!!!
Vikings @ Packers: Vikings

You're almost never right when it comes to the Pack, dude. And once again you'll be proven wrong

Redskins @ Giants: Giants
Lions @ Falcons: Lions
Bengals @ Ravens: Ravens
Seahawks @ Bills: Seahawks
Jets @ Dolphins: Jets
Chiefs @ Patriots: Patriots
Buccanneers @ Saints: Saints
Rams @ Eagles: Eagles
Texans @ Steelers: Steelers
Jaguars @ Titans: Jaguars
Cowboys @ Browns: Cowboys
Panthers @ Chargers: Chargers
Cardinals @ 49ers: 49ers
Bears @ Colts: Colts
Vikings @ PackersACKERS!
Broncos @ Raiders: Broncos

Fixed for fucking correctivity.

 

[Matt]

And why the fuck are people picking Minnesota over Green Bay? Tavaris Jackson is hurt (and sucks anyway) and overall they have made no improvements from last year.

 

[muzmaze]

I don't see all the excitement with the Vikings as well. As far as the line-bet being 3-points...its basically 3-points for home field advantage. This is a fairly even matchup ...I wouldn't touch this game betting wise.

 

[Matt]

It's not even close to being even. The Packers are a far better team all in all, but could start slow if Rodgers has problems early.

 

[muzmaze]

Well, if its a 3-point line then the makers are seeing it as even. Though, with the Vikes said injuries and the Pack being at home...even with Rogers at the helm, if forced, I would pick the Pack.

 

[seedofvengeance]

And why the fuck are people picking Minnesota over Green Bay? Tavaris Jackson is hurt (and sucks anyway) and overall they have made no improvements from last year.

Because adding a top 5 defensive lineman (Jered Allen) and a very good speed receiver (Bernard Berrian) to a corps that had almost nothing last year means nothing.
Sidney Rice is another year more experienced and better, and Adrian Peterson is the same and fully healthy. They'll win at least 10 games this year. They have a great defense and they just need the quarterback to not lose the game for them, with the running game they have.
Imo, the Packers are not going to be nearly as good as they were last year. I think they had a fluke season to begin with, and Rodgers is going to have his struggles. They had just better hope that Ryan Grant wasn't a fluke... as I will, considering he's on my fantasy team.

 

[Unfaithfully Metalhead]

Yup.
If you like a fave... bet right when the line comes out. Blind betters will pound the favorites, forcing the book to move the number higher.

Like the 'dog...wait til as late as possible to place.

Agree also on not betting across the board. Pick 1 or 2 games that you really like...maye 1 pro and 1 college and go with it.

I normally wait till wednesday or thursday before i decide to bet on which games because injury reports and such come out then... when the spread is very high i like betting the Dogs to cover... but depends on which Dogs... if they have a strong enough defense to keep the score as close as possible... or who can put pressure on the other team's quarterback... etc..

Also have to take other factors into consideration... the teams' morale, the weather if they are playing outside, jet lag if a west coast team is playing in the east coast or vice/versa, are they a offensive or defensive team or both? etc.. etc.. alot of factors...

As for college football... never seriously bet on those games are very high compared to the NFL PS... so i don't know what is a good PS or not in College football... but i did pretty good a couple years back on Ohio State's phenomenal season... But I think i will look into some college betting this year...

 

[MasterOLightning]

If I was betting college, I'd try to focus on one conference, so you can actually see the teams play regularly. I should have bet on Northwestern when I was going there, because they did really well against the spread at home. They were a good school to bet on because there was still the widespread perception that they sucked, when they've been a respectable program for the last 10 years or so.

 

[King Richard]

And why the fuck are people picking Minnesota over Green Bay? Tavaris Jackson is hurt (and sucks anyway) and overall they have made no improvements from last year.

A few reasons actually.

1. Improved defense. They made some nice off-season aquisitions in the db department. They've had the best defense against the run the past two seasons, and now with the addition of Jared Allen to the mix, they have a pretty strong pass rush now. Their pass defense was always a little bit skewed in my opinion. Yeah they ranked last in overall pass defense, but they didn't give up that many points, just too many first downs and yards. Like I said earlier, the improvements at db, and experience the that their dbs gained from last year is going to make them better.

2. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Arguably the best running back duo in the league. They have two different running styles, but they're both relentless and can pound it like there is no tomorrow.

3. Tavaris Jackson sucked because he had no help from his shit receivers last year. I'm not going to sit here and say Bernard Berrian is going to fix this problem, which I don't think he will. I don't like Berrian at all and I think he is a one trick pony. However that one trick when used sparingly can cause some damage to a defense that is set up with 8 men in the box to stop the two running backs that can bust a 50+ yard run at any moment. Like someone said earlier, if Jackson can just manage the game, put up decent numbers, and cut down on the turnovers the Vikings are going to be scary good this season.

4. No one knows how good or bad Aaron Rodgers will be and it's quite obvious he is no Brett Favre. So by deduction, they won't be as good.

What exactly am I always wrong about when it comes to the Packers, Mathias?

 

[AchrisK]

the pointspread is very easy... if the spread is let's say 5 points for the favorite... then the favorite has to win by more then 5 points in order for you to win the bet... if you are betting the favorite.... if they win by less then 5 points you lose the bet.. no matter if they won the game..

if you are betting the underdog... then the Dog has to lose by less then 5 points or win the game outright for you to win the bet... if they lose by more then 5 points or lose the game you lose the bet... so :

GIANTS - 5 Ravens +5

The Giants are the home team and are the favorite at 5 points and have to win by 6 or more points for you to win the bet... Ravens are the Dogs and have to lose by 4 points or less or win the game for you to win the bet...

Thanks for the explanation!

 

[Matt]

A few reasons actually.

1. Improved defense. They made some nice off-season aquisitions in the db department. They've had the best defense against the run the past two seasons, and now with the addition of Jared Allen to the mix, they have a pretty strong pass rush now. Their pass defense was always a little bit skewed in my opinion. Yeah they ranked last in overall pass defense, but they didn't give up that many points, just too many first downs and yards. Like I said earlier, the improvements at db, and experience the that their dbs gained from last year is going to make them better.

2. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Arguably the best running back duo in the league. They have two different running styles, but they're both relentless and can pound it like there is no tomorrow.

3. Tavaris Jackson sucked because he had no help from his shit receivers last year. I'm not going to sit here and say Bernard Berrian is going to fix this problem, which I don't think he will. I don't like Berrian at all and I think he is a one trick pony. However that one trick when used sparingly can cause some damage to a defense that is set up with 8 men in the box to stop the two running backs that can bust a 50+ yard run at any moment. Like someone said earlier, if Jackson can just manage the game, put up decent numbers, and cut down on the turnovers the Vikings are going to be scary good this season.

4. No one knows how good or bad Aaron Rodgers will be and it's quite obvious he is no Brett Favre. So by deduction, they won't be as good.

What exactly am I always wrong about when it comes to the Packers, Mathias?

1. The run is the only thing they can stop consistently, and one of their top is DE's hurt. Besides, Grant is a superior back, and won't be kept down the entire game. The Pack also have a good offensive line, so their defensive line won't get to Rodgers or Grant as fast as they would teams like the Rams.

2. If you can't pass, you can't run. What happened last year will be what happens this year - the defensive will stack the line and make them throw. Peterson got 150 or so yards last year, but as long as they bend and don't break the Vikings won't score.

3. Jackson couldn't get the ball to his receivers last year. Granted they weren't the most talented group, but the qb needs to get the ball to them, something he won't do. Adding one wideout won't do the trick when the Pack have two shutdown corners and a very good overall pass defense.

4. Even if Rodgers struggles early, the Pack can rely heavily on the run game. If they plan it out right, mixing the run with short slants and screens, Rodgers will be able to handle early pressure. But I honestly don't think they'll need to do that.

And you picked against the Packers every week last year and was right twice.

 

[King Richard]

I don't remember picking against the Packers every week. But I do remember being the only person around here who picked the Giants to make it to the Super Bowl by beating the Cowboys and Packers. I remember getting a lot of shit for that too.

 

[Matt]

Way to ignore all of that shit I wrote, jackass

 

[King Richard]

I'll reply to all your points later, I'm too tired atm.

 

[Mort Divine]

Redskins @ Giants: Giants
Lions @ Falcons: Lions
Bengals @ Ravens: Ravens
Seahawks @ Bills: Seahawks
Jets @ Dolphins: Jets
Chiefs @ Patriots: Patriots
Buccanneers @ Saints: Saints
Rams @ Eagles: Rams
Texans @ Steelers: Steelers
Jaguars @ Titans: Jaguars
Cowboys @ Browns: Cowboys
Panthers @ Chargers: Chargers
Cardinals @ 49ers: Cardinals
Bears @ Colts: Colts
Vikings @ Packers: Packers
Broncos @ Raiders: Broncos

 

[muzmaze]

I'll reply to all your points later, I'm too tired atm.

Well excuse us sleepyhead!
You weren't too tired to boast about the fucking Giants making it to the SB. jk

HAPPY FOOTBALL SEASON EVERYONE!

My new job (medical field) requires to work every other weekend.

I checked the schedule, good news is...I only miss three of the Pats 1pm games (thats if I don't call in sick, or have 3-grandmothers mysteriously die)

Bad news is...I miss three of the Pats fuckin 1pm games.