i think italy are the true 'dark horses' in this tournament. i know their attack looks uninspiring but conte is great tactically/motivationally, that juve backline will be solid as hell and they usually find a way to make things work once they to the knockout stages. they're being very slept on this time around but i wouldn't back e.g. england to beat them. that said, in my predictions i do have germany beating them in the quarters.
i also have croatia getting to the semis, but that's a bit of a punt. they're a little like belgium in that they have a lot of talent but their manager is iffy and there's rumours of disharmony in the camp.