belgium germany is probably the best possible final from a footballing perspective, but i'd love the narrative of a smaller nation making it. i think it's gonna be hard to find a good final with germany honestly given the teams on the other side of the draw - they're too good in possession, they'll dominate the ball against any of those teams and push them deep, even if they aren't penetrating. italy are probably the best counter attacking team in the tournament so if germany manage to beat them (i think they'll have a ton of trouble but italy tend to tire late, plus they have injuries/suspensions in midfield) i seriously doubt anyone's gonna stop them. this is probably my favourite possible fixture in euro 16 and i can't wait to see it - the semi final of WC '06 between the pair still lives long in my memory as one of the best games i've ever seen, and in some ways it was a similar sort of match-up with italy liking to sit back and then storm forward in numbers.
my reasoning behind the belgium prediction is that they're dogshit when they actually have to keep the ball and penetrate teams, and wales play in a similar way to italy (who dicked belgium), not to mention they were successful themselves against belgium in qualifying. i think the hungary and ireland games flattered belgium a bit because neither of those teams were set up to nullify belgium's strengths at all. this is a huge test for them.
portugal poland i'm expecting to be pretty dour - portugal are the ultimate spoiler ATM, that midfield is brutal and kills games, yet they're also pretty lacking in creativity and poland's defence is tight as hell. that's gonna be a long, gruelling slog methinks. poland's best chance is luring them in and killing them fast down the wings, but i don't see them taking too many risks early on and i expect a lot of sloppiness and sterile domination from portugal's mids with ronaldo blasting 20 long range shots over the bar. a single goal either way could be enough.
as for france iceland, that one's surprisingly unpredictable to me. france have been rather like england so far - their performance against ireland wasn't any better than england's vs. iceland for an hour, but coman coming on changed things and once they got on top they destroyed. they're one of those teams that needs a moment of inspiration to lift the pressure and get them and the crowd ticking, then they're pretty much unstoppable, but the longer they go without clicking the more they seem to struggle. if that moment of inspiration doesn't come (and in some games it hasn't or has come really late), i could totally see iceland providing another giant-killing. you've gotta think the fairytale will end somewhere though, probably once they tire second half and start making defensive errors like ireland did.