canelo has the better resume in terms of good opponents (well, not lately, so it's impossible to really say if he's improved this past couple years, but in general yeah), but also has had the greater size advantages and frequently closer fights, so that's swings and roundabouts to me. he probably lost to trout (although open scoring made that a weird fight), a lot of people think he lost to lara too although i scored that for canelo - both were super close anyhow. cotto is the best win since then and he's old and looked tiny in there, and still made it fairly competitive and never really looked hurt. the walking punchbag that was chavez, who'd been dropped and stopped by the featherfisted fonfara previously, took 145 power punches and never really looked hurt either. big guy with a generally strong chin, sure, but the same can be said for golovkin, who i've seen take big shots from one-punch KO artists like lemieux and jacobs (the two most powerful middleweights IMO) and just shrug like it was nothing. we haven't seen canelo take big shots from powerful middleweights... ever, because he's dodged the division for ages even though he's seemed to be a natural middleweight for a while (yeah i'm still a little salty over his holding that belt hostage lol). and a lot of the guys canelo's KOd have been clearly smaller than him, too. so i'm not ruling out he has enough power and/or enough durability, maybe middleweight is where he really comes into his own, i'm just saying i'm yet to be convinced.
golovkin is probably a bit overrated and declining anyway, there's only so much credit you can get for dominating a single weak division. i wouldn't take too much from the jacobs fight though as he's both a quality operator and a stylistic nightmare for that kind of methodical pressure fighter IMO - i reckon he'd give canelo some serious issues too with his size, range, power and movement, and i'd like to see that fight at some point in the future. i actually think the only reason this fight is happening is because oscar saw GGG jacobs and decided he looks more human - they obviously didn't think canelo was ready before that given that they even relinquished the belt to avoid a golovkin fight. i think it's dangerous to base anything on that jacobs fight 'cause this will be a very different kind of fight to that one. canelo is a counter-puncher for sure but he isn't as evasive and defensive as jacobs was, he's tough as fuck and he's not gonna be getting on his bike and jabbing GGG to death. if you're right that he actually can match him for power then maybe it won't matter, i definitely think he has the greater speed, accuracy and volume.
and yeah actually that vid i linked talks about how good canelo can be off the ropes, and it's fine when that's a legitimate tactic. but i also think he's always had stamina issues and sometimes he'll sit there more to recuperate than anything else. even chavez landed some stuff in those moments, and that was not a fight where it could be justified by the counter-punching argument 'cause there was no need for that, he was bossing just about every minute of that fight at a canter. i don't remember thinking it about the kirkland fight, i barely remember that fight tbh. the lara fight was where the gas issues were most apparent, not that he was getting pummelled there but he kept backing off every time it looked like he was getting on top and going really passive - i really thought he had lara's number if he'd not been struggling for breath half the time. maybe the main reason for that is he was drained down below middleweight, if he's got a much better gas tank here i'll consider it more even, but there's also the possibility he'll have a worse tank than ever 'cause he's likely gonna take more/harder body shots than ever before.
like you said though, canelo will go to the body too, and golovkin has slowed down noticeably in the past couple years i think, so... i mean, again, it really all comes back to that question of how much of a difference there is between their power i think (if any). i'm glad we finally get to find out, feels like i've been waiting for this nearly as long as mayweather pacquiao at this point. i don't think this one will disappoint though. i don't agree with anyone who thinks it's gonna be a wipeout or an early KO or shit like that. my prediction, for what little it's worth, is canelo takes an early lead but starts to tire over time, golovkin starts to control the second half of the fight, starts to really get to him in the last couple rounds but doesn't stop him, but it's enough to win on the cards. cue a rematch.
