Regarding the misconception about being a "headliner"

[AngraRULES]

Blackguard are mentioned as a joke in most discussions. They will never be headlining caliber.

Then again, these days they're probably more known than lots of bands who have played ProgPower. Like them or not, they're ahead in the race. Maybe they won't get there, but you never know.

 

[Diabolik]

How do you know?

been going to shows for 30 years and seen so many people come and go. Some who go to every show and then in 2 years they vanish and move on....there are a very very very small bunch who I have seen stick around. Just in the past 5 years even I have seen this happen more and more.

 

[AeonicSlumber]

And probably paid dearly for the privilege. The fact that they open for larger bands is not an *effect* of their increasing popularity, it's the *cause* of it. It's a sign that they (+Prosthetic) are willing to make an investment in their future. It's not like Dream Theater and Protest the Hero are saying "hmm, those Scale the Summit boys are now popular enough, let's ask them to come along with us!" It's more like "we'll take whoever is willing to pay the fee, even if it's Rebecca Black and her mom is paying the buy-on!"

I doubt it. Buying into tours is really a european thing only or if it's a major corporate sponsored tour in which there are tons of expenses that need to be immediately recouped (like video shoots, multiple stages, etc), or if the headliner of the tour wants the openers to pay for its nightliner.

 

[skyrefuge]

Neil, with all due respect, that is a terrible comparison. You basically just picked three new bands against three older bands that already have a solid fanbase in place. Of course they aren't going to grow as much as the newer bands.

Yes, I mentioned it was a small sample size, and I also didn't pick the bands for the comparison. I was limited by the list that dcowboys had recorded the last.fm data on 11 months ago. last.fm doesn't publish historical figures for the numbers in the comparison, so I can't go back and choose any random bands.

Do you have any data to support your assertion that newer bands generally grow their fanbase at faster rates than older bands? It seems sort of intuitive, but then history is littered with ideas that seemed sort of intuitive, but upon investigation ended up being flat wrong. It would be *more* believable if Novembers Doom had actually been exposed to their entire market of potential fans and was near their saturation point, but given that they currently have a mere 12% of Opeth's last.fm listeners, it seems there is still plenty of headroom there. I bet if Novembers Doom had opened for an Opeth tour, their growth over this period would have been much larger than it was (especially on the current Opeth tour, where fans might be willing to jump on *anything* that's heavy with growls! )

Perhaps a refined version of your statement, which then also exactly supports my assertions in this thread, is that *headlining* bands grow their fanbase at a slower rate than opening bands. And since there is a strong correlation between a band's age and its headlining status, then the tendency would be for older bands to accumulate fans more slowly. But not simply because they're older, but because they've stopped advertising themselves as strongly to new potential fans. Put even a 30-year-old band on a Metallica tour, and their fanbase will still surely jump.

Finally, one of the best takeaways from the data I posted doesn't even involve the three older bands. If we just look at the top three, bands all in very similar situations in terms of age, Blackguard had nearly double the growth of Mutiny Within and Powerglove (54% vs. 36% and 35%), which is a significant difference. I wonder why? Well, surprise surprise, they also played twice the number of shows over the past 2 years (273 for Blackguard, 135 and 142 for Mutiny Within and Powerglove, respectively).

Now, correlation is not equal to causation, so it's certainly possible that touring has nothing to do with it, in which case I guess the only explanation is that Blackguard is just flat-out awesome!

Neil

 

[skyrefuge]

You're wrong. Maybe in your center of the universe (Chicago) promoters don't pull that as much.

No, I'm not wrong, because the Chicago universe was explicitly what I was talking about, after Diabolik claimed that such things happen in Chicago. I made no claims about the rest of the country, but given how wrong he was with his claim, I am now somewhat skeptical about other peoples' claims. I think that a four-local-opener bill can suck so bad that it can end up burning in a bad memory that, in the re-telling, occurs more frequently than it does in reality. But yeah, if you live somewhere where the 4-local-opener show is actually the norm, you should move, or get a job that doesn't require you to be awake early in the morning!

Neil

 

[skyrefuge]

I doubt it. Buying into tours is really a european thing only or if it's a major corporate sponsored tour in which there are tons of expenses that need to be immediately recouped (like video shoots, multiple stages, etc), or if the headliner of the tour wants the openers to pay for its nightliner.

haha, dammit, have you people been lying to me this whole time then? I mean, the Rebecca Black thing was an exaggeration, I know it's not *that* pure of a money-grubbing deal. But what are you saying then? In the case of Dream Theater, they *did* bring Scale the Summit along just because they like them? That just wouldn't make much sense to me if I was Dream Theater's manager. With that opening slot, Dream Theater clearly holds something of value, with hundreds of bands+labels willing to compete with each other and drive up the price. So that seems pretty dumb (from a business perspective, but cool from a music perspective) if DT just gives it away for nothing!

Neil

 

[AngraRULES]

No, I'm not wrong, because the Chicago universe was explicitly what I was talking about, after Diabolik claimed that such things happen in Chicago.

Ah, okay. Now it makes sense. It does happen though, and yes. It SUCKS.

But yeah, if you live somewhere where the 4-local-opener show is actually the norm, you should move, or get a job that doesn't require you to be awake early in the morning!

Neil

Haha no worries. I'm okay though - I live right outside of NYC. The market up here for tours is better than anywhere else in the country, so I would rather suck it up. Man, do those suck though.

 

[AngraRULES]

haha, dammit, have you people been lying to me this whole time then? I mean, the Rebecca Black thing was an exaggeration, I know it's not *that* pure of a money-grubbing deal. But what are you saying then? In the case of Dream Theater, they *did* bring Scale the Summit along just because they like them? That just wouldn't make much sense to me if I was Dream Theater's manager. With that opening slot, Dream Theater clearly holds something of value, with hundreds of bands+labels willing to compete with each other and drive up the price. So that seems pretty dumb (from a business perspective, but cool from a music perspective) if DT just gives it away for nothing!

Neil

Dream Theater HAS brought bands along for no buy-on cost, yes.

 

[AeonicSlumber]

haha, dammit, have you people been lying to me this whole time then? I mean, the Rebecca Black thing was an exaggeration, I know it's not *that* pure of a money-grubbing deal. But what are you saying then? In the case of Dream Theater, they *did* bring Scale the Summit along just because they like them? That just wouldn't make much sense to me if I was Dream Theater's manager. With that opening slot, Dream Theater clearly holds something of value, with hundreds of bands+labels willing to compete with each other and drive up the price. So that seems pretty dumb (from a business perspective, but cool from a music perspective) if DT just gives it away for nothing!

Neil

Honestly I think in DT's case it's probably the least likely example of music industry bureaucracy. Especially considering that this was when Mike Portnoy was handling their business. Mike did what he wanted to do and went against the grain and had no problem with that. I mean, he tried to get Pain Of Salvation on that same tour, but they couldn't get the tour support (flights, etc) to make it happen. But yeah, Pain Of Salvation... nobody in the US save for a small number of people care about that band. DT could have easily just thrown Trivium or whoever was being jocked hard during that time on there but they didn't. That's not a dig at Trivium either of course!


In most of these cases, a booking agent compiles a shortlist of bands, sometimes the headlining band may suggest a few, and all of the band's people go over the list and select the opener. In most cases, the opener's likelihood of getting the tour is measured on current buzz, records sold, ability to bring people to the shows, etc etc. In Europe it's a bit different. It's more common practice for smaller type bands to travel in nightliners rather than RVs because Europe is such a large ground to cover and the idea of a breakdown already adding to costs of taxes for crossing countries, etc, is unfathomable. So they get a nightliner that they can't afford and their agent opens the tour up to anyone with a paycheck. In most cases, the band is able to share the nightliner and get access to the headlining band's catering as an additional perk, but it's not always the case, especially in 2011 with the economy the way it is.

 

[nomisofsiman]

Do you have any data to support your assertion that newer bands generally grow their fanbase at faster rates than older bands? It seems sort of intuitive, but then history is littered with ideas that seemed sort of intuitive, but upon investigation ended up being flat wrong. It would be *more* believable if Novembers Doom had actually been exposed to their entire market of potential fans and was near their saturation point, but given that they currently have a mere 12% of Opeth's last.fm listeners, it seems there is still plenty of headroom there. I bet if Novembers Doom had opened for an Opeth tour, their growth over this period would have been much larger than it was (especially on the current Opeth tour, where fans might be willing to jump on *anything* that's heavy with growls! )

Perhaps a refined version of your statement, which then also exactly supports my assertions in this thread, is that *headlining* bands grow their fanbase at a slower rate than opening bands. And since there is a strong correlation between a band's age and its headlining status, then the tendency would be for older bands to accumulate fans more slowly. But not simply because they're older, but because they've stopped advertising themselves as strongly to new potential fans. Put even a 30-year-old band on a Metallica tour, and their fanbase will still surely jump.

Finally, one of the best takeaways from the data I posted doesn't even involve the three older bands. If we just look at the top three, bands all in very similar situations in terms of age, Blackguard had nearly double the growth of Mutiny Within and Powerglove (54% vs. 36% and 35%), which is a significant difference. I wonder why? Well, surprise surprise, they also played twice the number of shows over the past 2 years (273 for Blackguard, 135 and 142 for Mutiny Within and Powerglove, respectively).

Now, correlation is not equal to causation, so it's certainly possible that touring has nothing to do with it, in which case I guess the only explanation is that Blackguard is just flat-out awesome!

Neil

I'm not a data hound like you are, so no I don't have the data. What I meant pretty much was that those other bands, their fanbase is pretty well established and unless they come out with a breakthrough album, become heavily promoted or are put on a big tour, it's likely to slowly increase, whereas a band who hasn't been around long and is new to the scene of course is going to see higher rise in their percentage of new fans. That's just common sense. Why I even brought it up though, I don't know because while I do use last.fm, I take their data with a grain of salt as it definitely doesn't account for everyone.