It's not a matter of debate anymore that Arbery was spotted entering the home under construction, leaving it after being spotted by a neighbor on a phone, and then followed by multiple neighbors. This wasn't "random guy jogging followed for also being black", this was "specific guy running from a home he illegally entered and possibly stole from".
With that established, we can then look to the security camera footage across the street, which shows Arbery running down Satilla Drive, past the home and truck of the McMichaels. Within less than 1 minute of Arbery passing their truck, they are seen exiting their home, and within two minutes they are driving in pursuit of Arbery down Satilla Drive. While it's plausible that they predicted Arbery's direction and took a sideroad to cut him off, the reports so far imply that both of them continued down that drive, meaning that the McMichaels HAD to drive past Arbery at some point. While there are a number of assumptions one could make to fill in the gaps, most of the assumptions in Arbery's favor have turned out to be false. Additionally, the 911 call by the father just prior to and during the call is available, and gives no indication that they verbally threatened to shoot Arbery.
In sum, the likely order of events is: Arbery entered a house illegally, fled when he realized he was seen, ran past the McMichaels, the McMichaels (and others) called the cops, the McMichaels then passed Arbery, exited their vehicle (the son with a weapon out), Arbery saw this yet continued running in their direction, then decided to attack and attempt to disarm one of them. Little of that indicates he would have been unaware of a guy in front of them with a shotgun, and he was certainly aware when he began to dart back and forth.
