I think Argentina is gonna have to try and score. Germany hasn't been shut out in a meaningful game in 4 years. Banking on shutting them down for two hours just for the crapshoot of penalties (in which Germany are historically excellent) is living on a prayer.
I just think Germany is gonna dominate the play in midfield and dictate the terms of the game. Midfield is Argentina's biggest weakness. Mascherano is a great player, but is more of a defensive midfielder. They lack a true creator in midfield, which is why I think they haven't got more out of their strikers.
On the other hand, Germany's midfield is excellent. The trio of Khederia, Schweinsteiger and Kroos in midfield for Germany is just ridiculous. Schweinsteiger and Khederia were both recovering from injuries when the tournament started, but now they're back in game shape. Then you add in the creativity of Ozil, the unpredictability of Muller, and the striking ability of Klose and it's pretty hard to imagine Germany not breaking through at some point. Still, even with that advantage it's such a difficult balancing act. How many players do you want to push forward, because Argentina can kill on the counter attack.
I'm picking Germany 3-1. Perhaps I'm being a little optimistic with the goal numbers, but I think if Germany score in the first half, Argentina will have to push in the second half, which could lead to a more open game, which ultimately plays into Germany's hands.