If Mort Divine ruled the world

The data does matter, because it would prove or disprove your theory.

The fact that Jews are complaining about random anti semitism while there were large incidents of actual sexual assault is yes, amazing. Just random pro-Jew narrative that the Arabs are coming to wipe out the Jewry.

It's a lazy narrative because I see more citations in the comment section than I do from the authors writing the article. One commentor says 25%, the other has a link to 50%. But there is no comparison to other large migration/refugee movements. I doubt the fighting age men stayed behind in C/E Europe in fear of the Nazis.
 
The data does matter, because it would prove or disprove your theory.

1. Payouts are tangential to my primary contention, which is that hurricanes are not, for most of the US east coast(and I mean right on the coast line), a phenomena for which "insurance" is applicable.

2. The number of poor people on the coast who receive a payout don't somehow legitimize a poor practice.

The fact that Jews are complaining about random anti semitism while there were large incidents of actual sexual assault is yes, amazing. Just random pro-Jew narrative that the Arabs are coming to wipe out the Jewry.

It's a lazy narrative because I see more citations in the comment section than I do from the authors writing the article. One commentor says 25%, the other has a link to 50%. But there is no comparison to other large migration/refugee movements. I doubt the fighting age men stayed behind in C/E Europe in fear of the Nazis.

Well obviously anti semitism isn't a problem for me as I am not Jewish, but the fall of Europe would be a problem for the US in the long run. What sort of movement do you think is relevant enough to warrant comparison to the ME-EU refugee situation?
 
How do you help poor people and promote rebuilding at the same time post natural disaster? Natural disaster insurance is notoriously expensive and overpriced, people don't even pay for health insurance.

Fall of Europe? What's up with these scare tactics?

I have no idea what movement is comparable. Jewish flight pre-1939 would be interesting to see. Any country that was in a civil war and fled to a 'developed' nation would be interesting, but it's quite rare afaik.
 
How do you help poor people and promote rebuilding at the same time post natural disaster? Natural disaster insurance is notoriously expensive and overpriced, people don't even pay for health insurance.

How many poor people own beachfront/close to beachfront property? I clarified a post ago but maybe I should have been more clear. I specifically meant the coastline, not 100 miles inland or whatever.

Fall of Europe? What's up with these scare tactics?

I have no idea what movement is comparable. Jewish flight pre-1939 would be interesting to see. Any country that was in a civil war and fled to a 'developed' nation would be interesting, but it's quite rare afaik.

Demographics must be confusing you.
 
How many poor people own beachfront/close to beachfront property? I clarified a post ago but maybe I should have been more clear. I specifically meant the coastline, not 100 miles inland or whatever.

My point is that while these properties will inflate the "gimmedats" greatly in favor of hurricane relief, I am asking for #'s that state these are the majority of people that benefit from FEMA. I am arguing that it's probably near similar population #'s for both midwest/coastal regions.

Demographics must be confusing you.

What is your model to compare to?
 
My point is that while these properties will inflate the "gimmedats" greatly in favor of hurricane relief, I am asking for #'s that state these are the majority of people that benefit from FEMA. I am arguing that it's probably near similar population #'s for both midwest/coastal regions.

Why would it matter period? Furthermore, the number of poor people claiming a shitty house they lost in the swamp doesn't somehow balance out the number of rich soandsos replacing their seasonal ocean front luxury rentals if we even accepted the necessity of FEMA for hurricanes.

What is your model to compare to?

What are you talking about? Young males spread seed, work, and conquer. Old people die. Young women birth babies.
 
Poor people never win, but it's better than conceding aid. What a lame point to argue. If a government policy helps out a majority of poor people, that's probably a good policy.

What are you talking about? Young males spread seed, work, and conquer. Old people die. Young women birth babies.
What sort of movement do you think is relevant enough to warrant comparison to the ME-EU refugee situation?

I thought this was where it was going but I guess not? I don't understand why you are bringing up the circle of life.
 
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0052970

"Results
[15]. When these specific portions of the regions failed to demonstrate functional differences, we generated larger, anatomically defined masks of the four areas. Consistent with the findings of structural differences by Kanai et al, significantly greater activation was observed in the right amygdala for Republicans and in the left posterior insula (near the temporal-parietal junction) in Democrats when making winning risky versus winning safe decisions (Fig. 1). No significant differences were observed in the entorhinal cortex or anterior cingulate cortex. All attempts to use behavior to distinguish Republicans from Democrats were unsuccessful (Fig. 2), suggesting that different neural mechanisms may underlie apparently similar patterns of behavior [29].

Figure 1. Republicans and Democrats differ in the neural mechanisms activated while performing a risk-taking task.

Republicans more strongly activate their right amygdala, associated with orienting attention to external cues. Democrats have higher activity in their left posterior insula, associated with perceptions of internal physiological states. This activation also borders the temporal-parietal junction, and therefore may reflect a difference in internal physiological drive as well as the perception of the internal state and drive of others.
"
It is PLOS so that's not a superb source, but it does point out (if legitimate) that conservative leaning people look at results, and Demo/left leaning people try to imagine mental states. The problem with sympathizing with possible mental states is that this sympathizing is more likely to be entirely projected.
 
If a government policy helps out a majority of poor people, that's probably a good policy.

Based on what? But unfortunately you haven't coughed up shit while I have so.....

I thought this was where it was going but I guess not? I don't understand why you are bringing up the circle of life.

No problem. Sharia law won't be a problem for me, I already avoid pork and I can make room in my day to bow to Mecca.
 
The evidence probably isn't out there because investigative journalists aren't a thing. You based your theory on evidence that doesn't prove it. That's all that happened here.

I feel like everytime I ask you for evidence based on comparisons it never occurs. I guess this is it
 
The evidence probably isn't out there because investigative journalists aren't a thing. You based your theory on evidence that doesn't prove it. That's all that happened here.

What theory are you talking about? I never based my insurance point on a number of beneficiaries. It's conceptual. The byproduct of government subsidization via ignoring the actual conception is the rise of expensive oceanfront construction relative to times past.

Somehow you think going Family Guy's Bono is a coherent rebuttal.

I feel like everytime I ask you for evidence based on comparisons it never occurs. I guess this is it

I feel like you miss the point and/or ask for stuff that doesn't exist.
 
There also shouldn't be FEMA coverage for hurricane damage on the Eastern Seaboard/Gulf but I digress.

It seems you are discounting poor people on the east coast because there is also rich investment there, rather than minimal in the midwest.

This question isn't ever answered, unless you are suggesting that any policy that benefits corporations, no matter the benefit to everyone else, should not exist. There isn't evidence to swing the data either way unless one of us reads through FEMA logs or whatever.

I feel like you miss the point and/or ask for stuff that doesn't exist.

This is another thing I don't get. I say it's a lazy narrative. You then disprove this lazy narrative by citing the evidence for the author, therefore doing the work he should have done beforehand. To me that is lazy writing, but I guess not to you since he's arguing in favor of a narrative you like. I question the validity of the "fighting age males"(which some studies go to 59, which is kind of ridiculous) and use the Jewish refugee migration pre 1939 as an example and you respond with;

"Demographics must be confusing you.
What are you talking about? Young males spread seed, work, and conquer. Old people die. Young women birth babies.
No problem. Sharia law won't be a problem for me, I already avoid pork and I can make room in my day to bow to Mecca."

In usual, Dak's monthly attempt to be controversial and then off on a tangent. At least that's what I can tell. The idea that Muslim men aren't fighting for their country is a legitimate one, as it's quite obvious the region does not buy into the European idea of nation-states. But tell me which males from which countries stayed to fight (preserve the status quo) while they sent women and children abroad. Then i'll agree that the narrative makes sense, other than that it seems like bullshit right-wing scare tactics.
 
This question isn't ever answered, unless you are suggesting that any policy that benefits corporations, no matter the benefit to everyone else, should not exist. There isn't evidence to swing the data either way unless one of us reads through FEMA logs or whatever.

What part of "it falls outside of the conceptual nature of insurance" is so hard to understand? You have made a counter claim that "as long as poor people get some help it's ok", with no conceptual backing and also can't even find data to suggest the poor even receive any outsized help from the program in the respective situations. You're entire position is completely unsupported conceptually and empirically, and yet you're trying to project that onto me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurance

Insurability[edit]
Main article: Insurability
Risk which can be insured by private companies typically shares seven common characteristics:[17]

  1. Large number of similar exposure units: Since insurance operates through pooling resources, the majority of insurance policies are provided for individual members of large classes, allowing insurers to benefit from the law of large numbers in which predicted losses are similar to the actual losses. Exceptions include Lloyd's of London, which is famous for insuring the life or health of actors, sports figures, and other famous individuals. However, all exposures will have particular differences, which may lead to different premium rates.
  2. Definite loss: The loss takes place at a known time, in a known place, and from a known cause. The classic example is death of an insured person on a life insurance policy. Fire, automobile accidents, and worker injuries may all easily meet this criterion. Other types of losses may only be definite in theory. Occupational disease, for instance, may involve prolonged exposure to injurious conditions where no specific time, place, or cause is identifiable. Ideally, the time, place, and cause of a loss should be clear enough that a reasonable person, with sufficient information, could objectively verify all three elements.
  3. Accidental loss: The event that constitutes the trigger of a claim should be fortuitous, or at least outside the control of the beneficiary of the insurance. The loss should be pure, in the sense that it results from an event for which there is only the opportunity for cost. Events that contain speculative elements such as ordinary business risks or even purchasing a lottery ticket are generally not considered insurable.
  4. Large loss: The size of the loss must be meaningful from the perspective of the insured. Insurance premiums need to cover both the expected cost of losses, plus the cost of issuing and administering the policy, adjusting losses, and supplying the capital needed to reasonably assure that the insurer will be able to pay claims. For small losses, these latter costs may be several times the size of the expected cost of losses. There is hardly any point in paying such costs unless the protection offered has real value to a buyer.
  5. Affordable premium: If the likelihood of an insured event is so high, or the cost of the event so large, that the resulting premium is large relative to the amount of protection offered, then it is not likely that the insurance will be purchased, even if on offer. Furthermore, as the accounting profession formally recognizes in financial accounting standards, the premium cannot be so large that there is not a reasonable chance of a significant loss to the insurer. If there is no such chance of loss, then the transaction may have the form of insurance, but not the substance (see the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board pronouncement number 113: "Accounting and Reporting for Reinsurance of Short-Duration and Long-Duration Contracts").
  6. Calculable loss: There are two elements that must be at least estimable, if not formally calculable: the probability of loss, and the attendant cost. Probability of loss is generally an empirical exercise, while cost has more to do with the ability of a reasonable person in possession of a copy of the insurance policy and a proof of loss associated with a claim presented under that policy to make a reasonably definite and objective evaluation of the amount of the loss recoverable as a result of the claim.
  7. Limited risk of catastrophically large losses: Insurable losses are ideally independent and non-catastrophic, meaning that the losses do not happen all at once and individual losses are not severe enough to bankrupt the insurer; insurers may prefer to limit their exposure to a loss from a single event to some small portion of their capital base. Capital constrains insurers' ability to sell earthquake insurance as well as wind insurance in hurricane zones. In the United States, flood risk is insured by the federal government. In commercial fire insurance, it is possible to find single properties whose total exposed value is well in excess of any individual insurer's capital constraint. Such properties are generally shared among several insurers, or are insured by a single insurer who syndicates the risk into the reinsurance market.

In other words, no private company would touch it, because it would be stupid to do so. So the government steps in and does the stupid thing.

This is another thing I don't get. I say it's a lazy narrative. You then disprove this lazy narrative by citing the evidence for the author, therefore doing the work he should have done beforehand. To me that is lazy writing, but I guess not to you since he's arguing in favor of a narrative you like. I question the validity of the "fighting age males"(which some studies go to 59, which is kind of ridiculous) and use the Jewish refugee migration pre 1939 as an example and you respond with;

"Demographics must be confusing you.
What are you talking about? Young males spread seed, work, and conquer. Old people die. Young women birth babies.
No problem. Sharia law won't be a problem for me, I already avoid pork and I can make room in my day to bow to Mecca."

I'm sorry for not providing more evidence for you to handwave when typing on the tiny screen of my smartphone. If it's a lazy narrative purely because the author doesn't cite support for a point that was tangential to the article (which means you went on a tangent relative to my post,not me), and I provided the support, your "lazy narrative" complaint is no longer valid. If you want to dispute the actual numbers then go ahead. Saying "well I'd like to see a comparison to some other relative historical situation, but those figures don't exist so the current situation warrants no concern" isn't a rebuttal.

tell me which males from which countries stayed to fight (preserve the status quo) while they sent women and children abroad. Then i'll agree that the narrative makes sense, other than that it seems like bullshit right-wing scare tactics.

There are three points of the anti-islamic refugee position:

1. Importing large amounts of people from a culture radically different is going to create major social problems (this holds true regardless of the specific religion)
2. The west can't afford it (also not specific to the refugees)
3. Muslims in particular (not every individual Muslim obviously) have a history of being diametrically opposed to western civilization, because it's not Muslim, rather than for some ideological differences that could be ironed out.

The point being supported by the article I posted was point #1. Yet, to say it was being supported by the article isn't quite true. The mass sexual assaults on New Years were the support. The article pointed out that feminism, whose harpies have complained about victim blaming for so long, are now in a position where they would rather victim blame than be "xenophobic".

But that lazy narrative tho.
 
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No, my point is that poor people get the majority of benefits out of FEMA. Of course a private company wouldn't start anything like FEMA for the poor, because they would lose their ass. We are a welfare state and that isn't going to change in the near future. Am I upset that rich people can take advantage of FEMA? Of course. You can watch the show Treme if you like the tele and see how it impacted NOLA after Katrina.

If it's a lazy narrative purely because the author doesn't cite support for a point that was tangential to the article (which means you went on a tangent relative to my post,not me), and I provided the support, your "lazy narrative" complaint is no longer valid. If you want to dispute the actual numbers then go ahead. Saying "well I'd like to see a comparison to some other relative historical situation, but those figures don't exist so the current situation warrants no concern" isn't a rebuttal.

Dude, the point of the article is that the violent military age men of Syria are leaving and are taking advantage of women in Europe. It's lazy because he didn't support it and then he says "Some of us remember a time when women and children were refugees, not men!" Like that fucking has any weight in a debate at all. The point he makes is that this refugee movement is so out of the norm, in that some disputed number from 25/50/75% of men have are joining the EU and causing problems. It's a legitimate rebuttal if this refugee movement is no different from any other. Does he go into that at all? No. The evidence is all apparent in the comment section, I said that in my initial post. But apparently there are 3 different sets of numbers so which is the best one? I have no idea.

1. Importing large amounts of people from a culture radically different is going to create major social problems (this holds true regardless of the specific religion)

That's the funny thing. Over 100k refugees came into Germany and how many committed crimes? A group of 20? And it's not even clear how many were refugees. Yeah, major social problems my ass.

2. The west can't afford it (also not specific to the refugees)

Probably, but the article has nothing to do with this aspect.

3. Muslims in particular (not every individual Muslim obviously) have a history of being diametrically opposed to western civilization, because it's not Muslim, rather than for some ideological differences that could be ironed out.

Sounds like you're suggesting that there's a slow rising Muslim insurrection building in every western country?

The article pointed out that feminism, whose harpies have complained about victim blaming for so long, are now in a position where they would rather victim blame than be "xenophobic".

That is being suggested in regards to German authorities, but this is not true for the first article that he references. (GamerGate chick, I think) She argues that right-wing writers/politicians are using Muslims as a scapegoat that society is crumbling in western Europe and that they are denying the idea of a rape culture by white people. She isn't deferring blame from Muslims, she wants more blame on whitey. It's true to an extent, and you are apparently advocating the belief she is arguing against. That white society is fine and now it's being corrupted by Muslims. NYE wasn't a good thing for Cologne, but if ~20 people per 100k commit crimes, that's not a bad ratio.
 
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No, my point is that poor people get the majority of benefits out of FEMA. Of course a private company wouldn't start anything like FEMA for the poor, because they would lose their ass.

They aren't doing it for the rich either. Why should the government "insure the uninsurable"? It's just burning money. Rebuilding things that shouldn't have been built to begin with.


Dude, the point of the article is that the violent military age men of Syria are leaving and are taking advantage of women in Europe. It's lazy because he didn't support it and then he says "Some of us remember a time when women and children were refugees, not men!" Like that fucking has any weight in a debate at all. The point he makes is that this refugee movement is so out of the norm, in that some disputed number from 25/50/75% of men have are joining the EU and causing problems. It's a legitimate rebuttal if this refugee movement is no different from any other. Does he go into that at all? No. The evidence is all apparent in the comment section, I said that in my initial post. But apparently there are 3 different sets of numbers so which is the best one? I have no idea.

The age and sex of refugees doesn't matter? Why not?

That's the funny thing. Over 100k refugees came into Germany and how many committed crimes? A group of 20? And it's not even clear how many were refugees. Yeah, major social problems my ass.

Try reading some news once in a while. If you can't be bothered to read anything on the subject why are you arguing about it in the first place?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...numbers-as-over-950000-arrive-in-Germany.html

"Minister calls for EU limit on refugee numbers as over 950,000 arrive in Germany"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sex-a...yb21tBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

Cologne police said they have now recorded 379 cases of New Year's Eve violence -- ranging from groping to theft to two reported rapes -- with asylum seekers and illegal migrants making up the majority of suspects.


http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/europe/europe-new-year-alleged-violence/

Other German cities had similar attacks that same night, including the northern city of Hamburg, where more than 50 similar incidents were reported.

Other European cities also reported attacks.

It doesn't matter that "only x number" out of hundreds of thousands did it. Why not just bar the door and then we could have a nice zero? Social capital which took decades to centuries to be built up is being destroyed in a relative instant for what? So some people can ditch out on the effects of some major cultural problems and go shit it up somewhere else?

Sounds like you're suggesting that there's a slow rising Muslim insurrection building in every western country?

Not in any sort of planned way. It is, again, a simple case of demographics.

That is being suggested in regards to German authorities, but this is not true for the first article that he references. (GamerGate chick, I think) She argues that right-wing writers/politicians are using Muslims as a scapegoat that society is crumbling in western Europe and that they are denying the idea of a rape culture by white people. She isn't deferring blame from Muslims, she wants more blame on whitey. It's true to an extent, and you are apparently advocating the belief she is arguing against. That white society is fine and now it's being corrupted by Muslims.

The west is far from fine, but it's not being "corrupted" by Islam, it's in the process of being replaced.
 
Short of extreme action, I think England will be an Islamic society or at the very least a Muslim majority society in 100 years or less.
Especially considering the overwhelming secular nature of current England and the rapidly dying if not dead influence Christianity has on it.
 
They aren't doing it for the rich either. Why should the government "insure the uninsurable"? It's just burning money. Rebuilding things that shouldn't have been built to begin with.

Because the majority of Americans have agreed to a welfare state. Not saying it's right or the correct way, but I don't see it changing in this century.

The age and sex of refugees doesn't matter? Why not?

I don't get this question out of that entire quote. The age and sex only matters in the case of Syrian refugees if they are actually different from previous refugee migrations. The author doesn't know nor have I see any article compare anything. Jews during the partial voluntary exit from Germany could be an example to compare, but no one has.

Try reading some news once in a while. If you can't be bothered to read anything on the subject why are you arguing about it in the first place?

So you are helping me prove my point further? Thanks man. Sorry I haven't caught up on the latest numbers but that makes this scare tactic mob even more ridicolous. 31 men have been charged on Cologne, 18 being asylum seekers out of 900k. Holy shit let's all get scared.

five from Iran and four from Syria
17 are from Northern Africa btw (Algeria and Morocco)

It doesn't matter that "only x number" out of hundreds of thousands did it. Why not just bar the door and then we could have a nice zero? Social capital which took decades to centuries to be built up is being destroyed in a relative instant for what? So some people can ditch out on the effects of some major cultural problems and go shit it up somewhere else?

You don't understand the response to your first sentence, apparently. There is no zero violence in any country. X amount of people are going to commit crimes no matter what. Do "third world" peoples have a higher chance of committing than the "developed" peoples? I would agree to that, but it's not significantly higher. Nor is there any evidence to suggest that these peoples cannot change or adapt etc.

Look at your dramatic language. "A relative instant", "destroyed." Jeeeesus christ. There's a struggle between being honest and not promoting xenophobia, and Germany messed up. Anyone who isn't an idiot knows that people will commit crimes.

The west is far from fine, but it's not being "corrupted" by Islam, it's in the process of being replaced.

All these scare tactics. It's amazing. Just because Muslim people have higher birth rates than I think any other religious people doesn't mean we are just one going to be like "Hey man, wtf happened?" :lol: I mean come on. I really don't care about these points, but you're really quite wrong on the whole idea of a perfect European society being tainted by Muslims.

Short of extreme action, I think England will be an Islamic society or at the very least a Muslim majority society in 100 years or less.
Especially considering the overwhelming secular nature of current England and the rapidly dying if not dead influence Christianity has on it.

I thought the Brits have a real hard time assimilating Muslims and really don't like them?
 
Short of extreme action, I think England will be an Islamic society or at the very least a Muslim majority society in 100 years or less.
Especially considering the overwhelming secular nature of current England and the rapidly dying if not dead influence Christianity has on it.

i'm no expert as i've never lived in a multi-cultural city or anything, but i find this hard to imagine. i just suspect there'd be a backlash way before that point--nearly every 'normal' brit i know is already uber racist and anti-immigration, and the tories are tightening things up big time--but maybe i'm underestimating how gradual and subtle it'll be? certainly, right now there are hundreds of towns dotted all over britain with a very strong christian presence and tight-knit traditional councils who are extremely resistant to change. my fairly affluent and conservative town has several churches that are always rammed, seems like every second person i encounter has a cross around their neck, a large portion of the kids are involved in choir and scouts and all that gay shit. hardly any muslims around here either aside from a few curry houses. i'm not denying that some of the major cities are extremely multi-cultural now (others not so much), i'm just saying britain is weird, you only have to take a fifteen minute drive and you're in a totally different culture. it seems too simplistic to generalise based on, say, london and manc or whatever right now, but maybe where those cities go the rest will eventually follow? i'm not really sure how this shit tends to work, historically speaking.