But I'm not making an argument; I'm not advocating violent behavior. I'm saying (as is Watts) that it is conceivable, given the circumstances, as to why violence against cops emerges, and why advice that blacks "just obey the law" rings hollow. If they're subject to social forces extending from providing for a family to maintaining some kind of image on which they fear their life depends, then the entire situation is far more complex than simply being a law-abiding citizen can solve.
You and Watts are arguing that violent behavior against police is emerging primarily due to a
belief that following the law does not grant any sort of protection, or at least an inconsequential measure. Where does this belief come from? It can't come from all of the rhetoric could it? We are also talking about a disproportionately violent population (YBMs). I'm sure the original propensity to violence couldn't possibly have a role. I use rhetoric and belief because that's exactly what it is. You, Watts, BLM, whoever have no basis for blacks fearing being gunned down by cops "willy nilly". Or even not willy nilly.
The veracity of stats isn't worth debating. If you doubt certain findings, then I can't do anything about that.
So I delayed responding until I could read the article. For one thing, the NYT research disagrees with certain findings. However they used radically different methodologies (Bayesian vs non Bayesian being the biggest difference) and statistical bases. I won't catalogue all the differences because that would take its own paper or Scott Alexander worthy blogposting, but I want to quote the opening paragraph of the Discussion from the PLOS article:
It is important to reiterate that these risk ratios come only from the sample of individuals who were shot by police and census data on race/ethnicity-specific population information. The USPSD does not have information on encounter rates between police and subjects according to ethnicity. As such, the data cannot speak to the relative risk of being shot by a police officer conditional on being encountered by police, and do not give us a direct window into the psychology of the officers who are pulling the triggers. The racial biases and behaviors of officers upon encountering a suspect could clearly be components of the relative risk effects observed in the data, but other social factors could also contribute to the observed patterns in the data. More specifically, heterogeneity in encounter rates between suspects and police as a function of race could play a strong role in the racial biases in shooting rates presented here.
So we have a source of data in the USPSD. That's this:
https://us-police-shootings-database.silk.co/
This site says:
The data behind this Silk comes from a crowdsourced collection of incidents of police shootings posted on Twitter by Sean McElwee. The accuracy of the data is not guaranteed as the collection and verification process remains unfinished.
Of course the PLOS article claims conspiracy and that, among other things, officer's names are critical. I don't understand how the names are critical to study unless they are being used as a proxy race indicator. So scientific. But it is possible that filings are incomplete so I'll let this go. But what about the veracity of crowdsourced tweets? How many are duplicates? How many are initial press releases that weren't accurate? How many "unarmed" people were making an attempt to grab a deadly weapon, whether the officers or another? How many were physically assaulting a smaller/weaker person? Etc.
Moving on from data source/veracity, let's talk about data that was analyzed. We are talking about only these crowdsourced shootings (not killings), judged by race and armed/unarmed status. That says zero about justification. That doesn't talk about relative to crime stats in the area. Doesn't give a ratio of liklihood in total terms. And so on and so on. There are 1457 reports on the website the data is pulled from, and that's probably more than when the data was analyzed. Assuming it is the same amount that was analyzed, that comes out to 86 (rounded) per year as per years listed on the database (and one isn't even an actual year). We know by official statistics there are more killings than that per year, much less shootings. The WaPo link I provided gave total killings in a year and then provided a statistical breakdown of justified, probably justified, maybe justified, and unknown percentages. By applying the percentages to the absolute numbers and granting the best possible case to the Satan Incarnate Alinsyite rhetoric, we have 59 black people killed unjustly by police in a year. Out of a population of 8.8 million as per a somewhat outdated census figure, without any further analyses, this isn't even a blip. Hell, if every police killing were a white person killing a black person unjustifiably, the >600 total in a population of 8.8 million would be a blip. But neither situation is the case.
But even more detailed analyses was provided by the NYT, and it found not only that blacks were less likely to be shot, but also countered Watt's opening assumption of "low costs":
Mr. Fryer wonders if the divide between lethal force — where he did not find racial disparities — and nonlethal force — where he did — might be related to costs. Officers face costs, legal and psychological, when they unnecessarily fire their guns
I know you don't see how it's race-specific. That's fine.
Laws do not specify race. Associating with law breakers and/or adopting mannerisms of lawbreakers is racially nonspecific. You don't have an argument to support your position as of yet.
You're picking a specific behavior of gang activity and singling that out as the crucial factor; but gang membership occasionally necessitates killing, and this in turn ensures one's membership in the gang. These are organized crime syndicates, there are aspects of the "job" that do not conform to the law.
I don't see how that is a counterpoint. Yes, and?
Coalminers care about the law only to the extent that the job they have been (likely) born into doesn't conflict with legal boundaries. If coalmining was suddenly outlawed, I wouldn't be surprised if criminal organizations involving the mining of coal began to emerge, and who knows? Violence between such organizations could even break out.
It's not coal mining itself so much as coal-fired power plants. Those are what would be outlawed, and thus simply reduce demand. What criminal organization is going to take over an enterprise with little to no demand?
The point of crossover between coalmining and gang membership is that both of these activities contribute to some form of larger systemic problem (climate and race relations) that members of neither group are interested in solving in a complex manner. The only option that seems immediately effective is to just keep doing what they're doing. With the issue of race relations, it unfortunately affects those not involved in gangs; and these individuals are often driven to some form of violence as well.
Why do coalminers mine? There's a civilizational demand for thermodynamic power generation (a positive in itself). Why do gangmembers gang? Because of a failing of their families/extended community.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.216.5620&rep=rep1&type=pdf
I won't quote the whole Discussion but yeah.
In closing on this issue, I don't expect the analyses I provided of the different analyses/data above to have any effect on you, or Watts, because like with BLM you all do not care about data in this case except as unexamined afterthoughts. Any links are tossed out with no discussion of their details or how they support. (Watts' other link was a "Police killings" site
http://killedbypolice.net/, again, no context.) The implicit argument is that the killing of civilians by police is inherently or possibly always wrong. One has the right to carry that opinion, but I see no arguments for it. Watts might be a decorated scifi writer, and may be a very knowledgeable biologist, but he's certainly lacking in key skills or orientations required to deal with social/political statistics or basics of logic and reasoning. In addition, according to wiki he had his own encounter with US CBP. I'm sure that has nothing to do with his
gut though.
The interesting extrapolation from such similar arguments as made by Watt et al is that we should turn the middle east into a glass parking lot.
Just to be clear - what I said (won't presume to know what others said) was that the argument about voyeurism wasn't a valid argument against transgender-friendly bathrooms, because stopping transgender people from using the bathrooms of their gender isn't going to prevent voyeurism.
This doesn't mean that voyeurs, transgender or not, wouldn't use public bathrooms.
Yeah that's why I said what I did. It doesn't have much to do with transgenderism, but it did occur, and some (not you, maybe not anyone on this board) argued that transgender men were so specially sacred they couldn't possibly do such a thing.