NFL 2016

[rms]

Yeah, saw that we are #3 in DVOA too -- and I heard the guy on Bomani Jones' podcast say even when they removed the Pats game we are still like 4th. "Good teams blow out crappy teams" is what he said.

But just when I could get my hopes up, McCoy gets a nagging hamstring injury and our #1 WR (#2 when Watkins is healthy) gets hurt too. Can't win, man. I guess Shaq Lawson could be ready tomorrow though, be interested in seeing him play. Rex had a big smile talking about him

 

[EternalMetal]

You don't have to like them /shrug. It's not like it's a new thing or it's just Aikman sitting at his computer running an Excel sheet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/13/sports/tv-sports-in-numbers-game-aikmans-add-up.html

It's probably better than the PFF grading/ranking system, which necessarily has subjective elements:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl-power-rankings/

Dal #2
Buf #6

You could also use Football Outsiders, which is probably more similar to the AER approach:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Buf#3
Dal#5

Not to be a biased Pats fan, but the efficiency ratings for them so far this season mean very little to me. Our 100% healthy QB was out on a suspension unrelated to health or injury, and the majority of the data collected so far would have been with the offenses run by our backup and 3rd string QB.

I admit that the Bills are actually a strong team this year. The next Bills/Pats matchup will be a good one, but id bet on Brady and the Pats this time. The Pats are not a crappy team, and orders of magnitude stronger on offense when not having to rely on a first year 3rd string QB with an injured thumb. The Bills only scored 16 points in that game, amounting to only 1 touchdown, and they had the ball almost 2/3 of the time.

I predict that the Pats will stomp the Steelers tomorrow without Big Ben, if not ill be rather surprised.

 

[Dak]

Yeah efficiency ratings just give a more objective and total picture of past performance as opposed to relatively context free data like yards or even wins and losses. If you are missing major pieces, past performance doesn't do as much to help predict future performance.

I also do not put as stock in Dallas' numbers with all the injuries and the suspensions to start out the year - also still using our 3rd string QB .

 

[EternalMetal]

Yeah efficiency ratings just give a more objective and total picture of past performance as opposed to relatively context free data like yards or even wins and losses. If you are missing major pieces, past performance doesn't do as much to help predict future performance.

I also do not put as stock in Dallas' numbers with all the injuries and the suspensions to start out the year - also still using our 3rd string QB .

Dak is 3rd string? At this point I view him as a once in a decade draft gem, though a QBs first year in the league is still merely a test of his potential in the long term. Also having the current #1 RB in the league helps quite a bit; I would imagine Romo would be equally or more dominant in the same offense. I still remember the hype surrounding RGIII in his first year, and he hasnt been able to put together a good game since.

 

[Dak]

Dak is 3rd string? At this point I view him as a once in a decade draft gem, though a QBs first year in the league is still merely a test of his potential in the long term. Also having the current #1 RB in the league helps quite a bit; I would imagine Romo would be equally or more dominant in the same offense. I still remember the hype surrounding RGIII in his first year, and he hasnt been able to put together a good game since.

That was a bit tongue in cheek. He was 3rd string battling Jamiel Showers to start off the offseason program. The #2 Kellen Moore suffered a broken leg and bumping him to competing for 2nd string by default, and then Romo went down in the preseason/plus he played better than Showers elevating him to 1st.

And yes, I think Romo would be putting up better numbers at this point if healthy.

 

[rms]

god damnit here comes a Buffalo choke. Ajayji is slaughtering us

 

[crimsonfloyd]

Ugly game today, but it was nice to see the Eagles' D absolutely annihilate Sam Bradford and a very unimpressive Vikings offense. There is something so pleasurable about seeing a QB playing like garbage and being able to say, "we're getting a first round pick for that guy..." I'm really impressed by Brandon Graham's development. When first drafted, he was always just "the guy we took instead of Earl Thomas." Eventually, he developed into a solid rotation guy. This year, he's been dominant on a regular basis.

Wentz had his first game where he really looked like a rookie (I don't blame him much for last week because the O-line was a mess). Some really terrible decisions in the first half and some sloppy ball handling. However, I did like that he kept his head in the game and improved in the second half. It showed resilience. On the flip side, the O-line was better and mostly kept Wentz clean. Vaitai was much more serviceable in his second start.

 

[Dak]

god damnit here comes a Buffalo choke. Ajayji is slaughtering us

I picked him up for fantasy and didn't start him because I thought Buf would do better . Guess he's getting the start next week. McCoy getting hurt is having an outsized impact on the Bills. They need to trade Dallas for McFadden

 

[Dak]

Ugly game today, but it was nice to see the Eagles' D absolutely annihilate Sam Bradford and a very unimpressive Vikings offense. There is something so pleasurable about seeing a QB playing like garbage and being able to say, "we're getting a first round pick for that guy..." I'm really impressed by Brandon Graham's development. When first drafted, he was always just "the guy we took instead of Earl Thomas." Eventually, he developed into a solid rotation guy. This year, he's been dominant on a regular basis.

Wentz had his first game where he really looked like a rookie (I don't blame him much for last week because the O-line was a mess). Some really terrible decisions in the first half and some sloppy ball handling. However, I did like that he kept his head in the game and improved in the second half. It showed resilience. On the flip side, the O-line was better and mostly kept Wentz clean. Vaitai was much more serviceable in his second start.

Yeah it was ugly on both sides. I quit watching around halftime in favor of the Redskins/Lions. The Giants/Rams game was ugly too. Take out that incredible pick 6 return and Rams probably pull out that game 13-10. G

 

[rms]

I picked him up for fantasy and didn't start him because I thought Buf would do better . Guess he's getting the start next week. McCoy getting hurt is having an outsized impact on the Bills. They need to trade Dallas for McFadden

Need to trade for Terry Tate to teach these boys how to tackle

 

[Dak]

Need to trade for Terry Crews to teach these boys how to tackle

 

[Dak]

Dallas and Philly coming up. Based on how both teams have looked in their previous 3 games, I would think Philly is going to get run over (literally, with Elliott) and the only chance they have to stay in the game is going to be on special teams (which is one area Philly has looked great the last 2 games). On the other hand, divisional games are always tough just because. I'll take Dallas 27-17.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

Minnesota did not have much in the way of the run. The Eagles D will whoop on teams that lack a strong run game, especially if they get the lead. I am worried about a repeat of what we saw vs. Washington when Philly's D-line was manhandled. A key will be starting fast on offense, which Philly hasn't done in a couple weeks.

 

[Dak]

Minnesota did not have much in the way of the run. The Eagles D will whoop on teams that lack a strong run game, especially if they get the lead. I am worried about a repeat of what we saw vs. Washington when Philly's D-line was manhandled. A key will be starting fast on offense, which Philly hasn't done in a couple weeks.

Yeah Minn has a bad oline and no good RB and managed over 4ypc. Between that and the WA game especially I figure Zeke could sniff 200yds. If I were the Philly D I'd spend extra time practicing ripping and swatting the ball this week. Dak wasn't quite his careful self in GB but played alright. Hoping he doesn't pick this game to look like a rookie.

 

[EternalMetal]

I missed the Eagles game so I cant really comment on specific play. Sounds like Bradford just had a shitty game, which from what I remember is something that tends to happen to him.

I watched mostly all of the Seahawks/Cardinals game (gave up around the 2 minute warning in the 4th), and it was a straight up dog fight. A non-mobile Wilson really killed it for the Seahawks offense, though the shitty O-line is probably where things are falling out for them. Im surprised that the Seahawks D were able to last out the whole game and OT without allowing one TD. The time of possession was really lopsided, so I expected them to die out in the 4th and never did. Turns out Sherman is better against veteran route runners like Fitzgerald than he is with more athletic rookies.

I predict that the Pats will stomp the Steelers tomorrow without Big Ben, if not ill be rather surprised.

Well turns out I wasnt completely right on this, but the game did end with us having a 2 score lead. I didnt realize that they actually had a reliable backup in Landry Jones, so I was expecting more of a one sided contest. If Butler didnt pick Jones in the end-zone, this might have been a much tighter game. I was somewhat disappointed with our play overall, but at least it didnt end in a loss.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

Yeah Minn has a bad oline and no good RB and managed over 4ypc. Between that and the WA game especially I figure Zeke could sniff 200yds. If I were the Philly D I'd spend extra time practicing ripping and swatting the ball this week. Dak wasn't quite his careful self in GB but played alright. Hoping he doesn't pick this game to look like a rookie.

Vikings averaged 3.4 ypr vs. Philly, well below the league average. Really, the Eagles had one terrible game against the run and have been solid the rest of the year. TBD if the Washington game was indicative of a bigger problem or was an outlier.

 

[Dak]

Vikings averaged 3.4 ypr vs. Philly, well below the league average. Really, the Eagles had one terrible game against the run and have been solid the rest of the year. TBD if the Washington game was indicative of a bigger problem or was an outlier.

The Vikings main backs averaged 4.6 (Asiata) and 3.9 (McKinnon) respectively with a combined ypc of 4.26. I couldn't find a league mean off hand but the median is 4.15. Their ypc avgs of the sum of games prior to the Eagles game were 2.86 (Asiata) and 3.05 (McKinnon). Both running backs performed better against the Eagles compared to their prior average.

Redskins split carries to 3 backs, all of who went over 4ypc. Matt Jones was averaging 4.08ypc coming into the Eagles game. Kelley was averaging 3.63 but the sample size is small though. Thompson was averaging 4.88 on a nearly as small sample. Only Thompson saw a drop (4.1). Jones more than doubled his ypc to 8.4, and Kelley put up 11.8.

The Eagles first 3 wins came against the Browns, Bears, and a Bell-less Steelers team. The Browns didn't rush much but the backs avged 5.6ypc. The Bears also didn't rush all that much but they suck anyway, and the Steelers without Bell aren't much to fear on the ground either.

I think all of this is enough to suggest that the Eagles' run D is at the very least suspect. The Packers and Bengals were supposed to have top notch run Ds and were run over. Another indication for what will probably happen Sunday would be that the worst performance the Eagles had was against the zone run blocking scheme that the Redskins use - and Dallas uses the same scheme, and most would consider the Dallas line and back superior to those of the Redskins.

All of that said, Any Given Sunday. DVOA has the Eagles ranked #1 defensively currently, AER has them 5th, and PFF has them 8th.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

The Vikings main backs averaged 4.6 (Asiata) and 3.9 (McKinnon) respectively with a combined ypc of 4.26. I couldn't find a league mean off hand but the median is 4.15. Their ypc avgs of the sum of games prior to the Eagles game were 2.86 (Asiata) and 3.05 (McKinnon). Both running backs performed better against the Eagles compared to their prior average.

That's not what you said initally. You said they averaged over 4 ypc as a team, which they didn't. Also, Asiata had a 29 yard run on a 3rd and long. A total "gotcha" play. On the rest of his carries, he averaged 2.36 ypc. Not nearly as impressive.

 

[Dak]

That's not what you said initally. You said they averaged over 4 ypc as a team, which they didn't. Also, Asiata had a 29 yard run on a 3rd and long. A total "gotcha" play. On the rest of his carries, he averaged 2.36 ypc. Not nearly as impressive.

Yeah I should have been more specific earlier. I go back and forth on the long run arguments.I know I would prefer a back who gets 4 yards every time he touches the ball vs getting 0 yards and then getting 8 (goes back to the old Smith vs Sanders arguments). If a team commits to the run though even against good run Ds you should expect to see lower ypc early in the game and then later on as the D gets tired you see some longer runs. I only watched the beginning of the Eagles/Vikings game though (was way too ugly all the way around early to keep watching) so I don't know if that's kind of what happened.

 

[Jimmy... Dead.]

This is disturbing

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...own-new-york-giants-most-basic-offense-in-nfl