US Housing Market Faggotry

That was fun to watch. Even funnier was how I sold my house at the height of the incline. Yes, I'm a financial genius.
 
Anyway, so yeah, I agree with the Adrian that average returns on housing are pretty much equal to inflation. So, you're really not making any money (on average) but the thing is, you OWN YOUR HOUSE. There's no two ways around it: if you have the money, you buy. If you don't, you rent. Assume you spend $720,000 over 30 years ($2000 a month) on your house and you outright own the fucker. Suddenly, as soon as your last payment clears and the deed is in the mail, you die. Worst case scenario is over those 30 years you spent just slightly more per than someone that rented for 30 years BUT you can will your house to your deadbeat family. Best case scenario is you live 30 more years and don't have a house payment, just taxes and insurance. While the renter just keeps on forking it over. Renting is bad economics, folks. Face it. You're just putting your cash into someone else's pockets who had the financial good sense to buy the property in the first place.
You guys laugh at my ideas but you obviously don't make enough money to buy a house in the world's most expensive markets. What do you expect? That house prices will come down to average $150,000? Never happen. Everyone and their Mom will continue to flood those desireable markets and keep prices high. Move somewhere you can afford and stop fucking complaining.
 
I'm waiting for 50% market drops. It'll happen, mark my words. MARK MY WOOOOOOORDSSSSSSSSSSSZZZZZZZ..........
 
Anyway, so yeah, I agree with the Adrian that average returns on housing are pretty much equal to inflation.

Depressing here is when you see something and go, what moron would by that, and ten years later you kick yourself repeatedly.

personal example, when my parents first moved out to the west coast of vancouver island, there was waterfront acreages going for about $5 an acre (literally). 10 years later these same acreages are covered in $5 million mansions. So if he'd spent 50 bucks and had the money for $2000 a year in property tax, we could have been multi-millionaires, instead of the millionaires who bought the property and developed it.

You guys laugh at my ideas but you obviously don't make enough money to buy a house in the world's most expensive markets. What do you expect? That house prices will come down to average $150,000? Never happen. Everyone and their Mom will continue to flood those desirable markets and keep prices high. Move somewhere you can afford and stop fucking complaining.

It's true. Renting is dumb, but huge debt is also dumb. I've got a savings thing going on now, so if I decide to build/buy a house in Germany, in say 15 years... I'll have 80,000 euros to throw at it. Thats assuming I don't get a better job and jack up my monthly payments.
 
yep. Its kinda weird and scary. Also weird is that so many countries have a mutual debt that could also cancel each other out, but those interest payments are like grease on the rusty cogs of the global economy. Wierd shit that I don't understand.
 
35% price drop in one year:

blog-hov11.png


:kickass: :kickass: :kickass:

These are from Ara Hovnanian, a presentation he recently gave.
 
Guess I'll be moving to Northern California.
Seriously, there's some data missing from that info. For example, perhaps the average selling price is lower because only shitty houses are left to sell? I mean, I get the dude's point but it's waaayy more complicated than that.
[/PhD economics]
 
Cynical response: It's easy to drop several percentage points when you're already the most crime-ridden city in the country.
 
Dow Industrials Drop 465 Points Then Gain Most of It Back As Fed Cuts Rates 3/4 Point

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street struggled to steady itself Tuesday, climbing back from an early plunge after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in hopes of restoring stability to a faltering U.S. economy. The Dow Jones industrials, down 465 points at the start of the session, recovered to a loss of about 145 points.

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The U.S. markets joined a global selloff amid growing fears that a recession in the United States could send economies around the world into a downturn. Though stocks regained ground as investors digested the Fed's move to cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.75 percentage point and as bargain-hunters entered the market, trading remained volatile and the major indexes fluctuated sharply, at times approaching the break-even point before heading down again.

The Fed's move was unusual, coming between regularly scheduled meetings and just a week before its next gathering. But that created little, if any, optimism on Wall Street, particularly because stocks have been falling steeply for months because of the ongoing housing, mortgage and credit crisis and its impact on the overall economy.

The rate cut helped stanch the stock drop because "the equity markets are so used to the kneejerk reaction that if it's cheaper for companies to borrow, earnings will go up," said Daniel Alpert, managing director of Westwood Capital LLC. "But throwing more cheap money into the equation doesn't help the fact that we have a credit crisis on our hands."

With the housing and credit markets unlikely to turn around soon, and more disappointing economic news expected, investors were expected to keep shying away from stocks.

And even before the cut was announced, no one believed lower rates alone would erase investors' concerns. For the market to truly gain a foothold, investors need to see strong economic data in the coming weeks and solid earnings reports and forecasts this week from big multinational companies like Microsoft Corp., AT&T Inc., Caterpillar Inc. and Honeywell International Inc.

"If that doesn't happen, then all this is a short-term bottom before a resumption of selling," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

U.S. bonds were mixed, with investors seeking safer investments as stocks declined. The price of oil, meanwhile, fell amid expectations that a downturn would depress demand for energy.

The Fed lowered the target federal funds rate, or the interest banks charge one another for overnight loans, to 3.50 percent and the discount rate, the interest the Fed charges banks directly, to 4 percent..

It can take months for an interest rate cut to work its way through the economy. In the short term, it makes borrowing cheaper, but the billions of dollars in failed mortgages over the past year have made lenders wary of writing loans to almost anyone -- consumers or corporations. And the heavy losses that banks and other financial institutions have suffered due to failed mortgages and related investments have raised questions about their stability.

The Dow was down 145.10, or 1.20 percent, at 11,954.20. The Dow was last below 12,000 in March 2007.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 20.18, or 1.52 percent, at 1,305.01, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 50.36, or 2.15 percent, to 2,289.66.



:err:
 
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/29/real_estate/Housing_unaffordability_persists/index.htm

I thought this article was funny because it mentions nurses several times but I thought it was worth a link because it doesn't make any sense. Where exactly are these markets that people can't "afford" the rent on a 2 bedroom apartment? The Empire State Building? The John Hancock Tower? I'm convinced more and more every day that the media simply makes shit up to fill the pages.
 
you're lucky as heck dude ... you sold just in time and are in a great position in making a killer deal on a new home should you decided to get one.
 
To be honest, we planned it. Not like we're financial wizards or anything, just good planning. And we are in a good position in theory - housing prices in the more desireable hoods here haven't really dropped much. Supposedly new construction has ground to a halt but we're talking about the cookie-cutter pieces of crap that Mexicans build in the burbs - not solid houses in good neighborhoods.
Although we are actively looking, I'm leaning more toward renting than owning. I really question if it's worth it to own. The tax benefits don't negate the hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest that you pay over the the life of the loan.
 
i really believe that owning makes sense only if its something you can pay off in literally a few years OR ... if the property is not that expensive to begin with like $200k or the like.

to pay $600K in interest on a $500K property over 30 years is assinine to me.
 
I find myself becoming more aligned with that philosophy every day.
If fact, we've been looking at $200,000 ranches lately. Here, that gets you a ranch in good shape in a pleasant - not hip or cool or interesting - neighborhood.