Humans to be dumb as chimps by 2100

[infoterror]

The dark blue line is the average IQ of the world. I've also plotted the population growth of the five most populous countries, India, China, the U.S., Indonesia, and Nigeria; the average IQ of each of these countries is in parenthesis. (Nigeria is currently ninth, with Brazil (87), Pakistan (81), Russia (96), and Bangladesh (81) intervening, but by 2050 it will be fifth.) As you can see, in a 100 year period the world's average IQ will have dropped from 92 to 86, a change of 6%. That is pretty darn significant. And all because of differential population growth.

I extrapolated the population growth of each country another 50 years to the year 2100 (lightly shaded region of graph). At that time the world's average IQ will have dropped below 84. Within this time period of 150 years, extremely short by any evolutionary standard, an incredibly significant change in this key metric will have occurred. And there is no sign of the trend bottoming out, because the growth rate of countries with lower IQs exceeds the growth rate of countries with higher IQs. The most populous country today is China, which has a high IQ (100), but its growth is actually projected to be negative because of their "one child" policy. After about 2030 India will be the most populous country, and it has relatively low IQ (81). At current growth rates by 2100 Nigeria will be the third most populous country, and it has a low IQ (67).

http://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/000953.html

( To me, this is quite disturbing: different political systems wax and wane, but when we become a dumber species as a whole, our future is clearly shit. )

 

[kmik]

First of all, this article assumes that measured IQ for all countries will remain constant for 100 years, which is not necessarily true.

Anyway, it doesn't mean that humans are becoming dumber. The reason average IQ will supposedly drop is because countries with low average IQ have a higher population growth rate than western countries with a high one. In the future, the average person will also have a darker skin tone - it has nothing to do with genetics, democracy, or the racial death of the great heroic Aryan race - it's just that there will be more black people on earth.

 

[BloodSword]

Well, this is a fine topic. To say, human beings will become dumber is IMO, more than likely going to happen. We are just a bunch of monkeys anyway. Look at the state of the world, hell, just look at your neighbors. We have destroyed this planet,and in time will destroy ourselves. So, hang on, for we are in for a real bumpy ride!

 

[speed]

Well, this is a fine topic. To say, human beings will become dumber is IMO, more than likely going to happen. We are just a bunch of monkeys anyway. Look at the state of the world, hell, just look at your neighbors. We have destroyed this planet,and in time will destroy ourselves. So, hang on, for we are in for a real bumpy ride!

I agree, this is the least of our problems. And does it even matter if average IQ goes down? Im not terribly fond of IQ measurements myself (I do qualify for Mensa, no shit), and think the wider picture of education (culture, the actual process of learning, the value of knowledge) is much more important. For instance, if we suddenly change our culture, and once again valued creativity, critical thought, and had a media, government, and entertainment (i.e. people read something other than Stephen King, Dean Koontz, Danielle Steele; watched something other than American Idol and Law and Order, and listened to something other than Clay Aiken, Nick Lachey, hip hop) industry that valued and stressed such things, then I really dont think any projected drop in IQ would matter.

Plus, this whole projection is highly suspect one hundred years out. I cant imagine the standard of error here. Its nothing more than a good educated guess using current trends. Projecting population more than five years out is problematic.

And finally, I'm already enjoying the fruits of being considered one of the smartest people anyone knows (due to the low level of education and knowledge these days); hell, I'll be able to win Jeopardy and make constant jokes that no one else understands! And I would suspect infoterror and most other posters around here would benefit from this as well.

 

[infoterror]

When intelligent people are a minority, they will soon be squeezed out. An average IQ of 82 means that most of our fellow humans will be dumb as bricks. How could you support democracy under such circumstances?

 

[speed]

When intelligent people are a minority, they will soon be squeezed out. An average IQ of 82 means that most of our fellow humans will be dumb as bricks. How could you support democracy under such circumstances?

First, we dont have a democracy. Second, due to cultural/economic/media pressures, most Americans are essentially dumb as bricks. Oh sure, they may have a higher IQ, but whats that good for? Organizing spreadsheets in Excel?

 

[Thoth-Amon]

I have a hard time believing the average IQ is 80 something. I thought it was around 110 or so. Secondly I have to ask... what exactly is being asked on these IQ tests? Are they completely difficult or bizarre things? Are they things that people in various cultures know nothing about (and hence score low)? Lastly I was tested at 163, does this make me twice as smart as most people? I know I'm certainly smarter in some ways than most people that I meet, but twice as smart?

 

[infoterror]

Second, due to cultural/economic/media pressures, most Americans are essentially dumb as bricks.

Yes, but there's potential there.

A planet full of 80 IQ people with any technology is doomed.

Smart enough to destroy, but not to create...

 

[kmik]

Wow, you people simply don't get it. This article assumes that the average measured IQ for all countries will remain constant - that for every country, the ratio of stupid:smart will be the same, that human genetics or anything else which could possibly influence people's IQ will not change! It has nothing to do with democracy!

Look, this is simple mathematics. Let's say we have 2 separate populations, A and B. there are 4 people in A and they all have IQ 100, so the average IQ for group A is 100. In group B there are 8 people and they all have 0 IQ, so thats average 0, of course. Overall, for both groups, the average is 100*1/3 = 33.3

Now suppose population B doubles itself, so we now have 16 people in group B, and they all have 0 IQ. Group A remains the same size. Now the overall average is 100*1/5 = 20. The IQ for each population remained the same! Group A didn't get dumber. Nothing to do with evolution. It's just that countries with low average IQ have a higher growth rate than others.

Besides, the assumption that measured IQ for every country will actually be the same for 100 years is idiotic. It changes constantly. In fact, for each country the average IQ is on the rise (Flynn effect).

 

[infoterror]

Wow, you people simply don't get it. This article assumes that the average measured IQ for all countries will remain constant - that for every country, the ratio of stupid:smart will be the same, that human genetics or anything else which could possibly influence people's IQ will not change! It has nothing to do with democracy!

There's no reason to assume IQ will change from this path, since it hasn't deviated for centuries.

 

[kmik]

There's no reason to assume IQ will change from this path, since it hasn't deviated for centuries.

Hasn't changed for centuries? The first IQ test was published less than a 100 years ago, and it probably took a long time before they started measuring average IQ worldwide. And IQ is changing (Flynn effect). So you seem a little overconfident.

Anyhow, I explained in the rest of my post that this article does not suggest humans are becoming dumber. And besides, wasn't your original point to prove that the materialism and the Jews are making the Europeans dysgenic? Because this article doesn't prove that (in fact it assumes they don't)

 

[infoterror]

And IQ is changing (Flynn effect).

That is most likely an artifact of measurement, not intelligence.

What are you trying to argue here? You're incoherent. World average IQ is dropping. This means that in a world given to liberal democracy, intelligence is marginalized. What part of that don't you understand?

 

[kmik]

That is most likely an artifact of measurement, not intelligence.

What are you trying to argue here? You're incoherent. World average IQ is dropping. This means that in a world given to liberal democracy, intelligence is marginalized. What part of that don't you understand?

Oh my, world average IQ dropping has nothing to do with liberal democracy, only with population growth. Read my post about groups A and B again. Let's say we have a democracy of 100 people, all of them with average IQ of 150. And next to them is a communist dystopia with 10000000000000000 people, all of 60 IQ. Worldwide average IQ is very low. What does it have to do with the the first group!?!

 

[infoterror]

Oh my, world average IQ dropping has nothing to do with liberal democracy, only with population growth.

Worldwide average dropping = more stupid people are breeding than smart ones.

The past century has been defined by a shift toward liberal democracy.

That's relevance; why are you refusing to address these realities?

 

[kmik]

Worldwide average dropping = more stupid people are breeding than smart ones.

The past century has been defined by a shift toward liberal democracy.

That's relevance; why are you refusing to address these realities?

Democracy A has an average of 80 IQ, democracy B has an average of 100 IQ. Both are completely separate, democracy B doesn't care what's going on in democracy A. now democracy A has more people so overall average IQ is lower; but life for everyone in both democracy A and democracy B hasn't changed, because in each democracy the ratio of smart to stupid is the same, so they shouldn't fucking care!

 

[EGOR]

I dont see many chimps Kidnapping, murdering, shooting, blowing to bits..etc other chimps, those little hairy fellas have got more sense than we credit them for.... I reckon your average chimp, looks at a Human being and thinks to himself " What an asshole ".

www.Agankast.com

 

[infoterror]

Democracy A has an average of 80 IQ, democracy B has an average of 100 IQ. Both are completely separate, democracy B doesn't care what's going on in democracy A. now democracy A has more people so overall average IQ is lower; but life for everyone in both democracy A and democracy B hasn't changed, because in each democracy the ratio of smart to stupid is the same, so they shouldn't fucking care!

More people = lower IQ only when the majority of them are dumb, which means the ratio of stupid:smart is not the same.

Your argumentative strategy, summarized

 

[War_Blade]

I don't believe you can measure one's entire brain with a number. I have gotten numbers like 70 on some tests while on others i have gotten 178. I took a state IQ test and i got 138. Some say that Einstein once had been marked at 130! These thing are far too inaccurate for me to take seriously.

 

[no country for old wainds]

Both are completely separate, democracy B doesn't care what's going on in democracy A.

i guess this must be what infoterror's disputing

 

[Norsemaiden]

Regardless of the population growth (as regards growth through birth rather than through immigration) in the third world being far greater than it is in the first world, it is well known that the less intelligent segment of any population has more children than the most intelligent segment. As intelligence is inherited, the consequence of this can only be a fall in the level of intelligence.

Also, there is a huge migration from the third world into the west so this does change the genetics of the population.