Realist thinking cannot avoid the threats posed by environmental crisis. Peaking oil reserves and global warming are the other face of globalization - the worldwide spread of the mode of industrial production based on fossil fuels that has enabled the economic and population growth of the past two centuries. This process is not far from reaching its limits, which are not so much political as ecological. Industrial expansion has triggered a shift in global climate that is larger, faster and more irreversible than anyone imagined, while the non-renewable fuels that power industry are becoming scarcer as demand for them continues to rise [footnote to sources on climate change, listed below]. These facts have implications for war and peace, some of which I have touched on in earlier chapters. Yet the military-strategic implications of ecological crisis have rarely been examined, and the subject remains taboo. When a Pentagon group issued a report on 'An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for US National Security' in October 2003, its analysis and proposals were uncongenial to the Bush administration and it was shelved.
The report considered the geo-political consequences of abrupt climate change, and identified food shortages due to increases in net global agricultural production, decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions and disrupted access to energy supplies. The overall effect of these changes would be 'a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment' - in other words, a reduction in the human population the planet can support.
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The Pentagon report was pioneering in accepting that abrupt climate change could lead to a drop in the planet's capacity to support human life. Its account of the types of conflict that could follow is plausible, though it may have underestimated their intensity. The analysis assumed they would be regional-strategic conflicts with religion playing no part in them, but much of the planet's remaining patrimony of oil lies in Muslim lands, and conflict over resources could be intensified by antagonisms surrounding the 'war on terror'. The risk is that resource war will be mixed with wars of religion and the otherwise far-fetched theory of clashing civilizations become self-fulfilling.