NFL 2012

[Dak]

The Giants and Eagles have their own Oline problems. I think Eli will regress to the Eli we know and love and teams will be more prepared for Cruz. The Eagles can make up for any issues with Vick with McCoy, who is a certified stud. The Giants do not currently know if they have anyone to take that pressure off Eli. The Giants also already have injury issues on the defensive side of the ball. As it sits right now I think the Skins could edge the Giants for third. I did qualify that as "out on a limb".

 

[crimsonfloyd]

I'm just not seeing it. What makes you think Eli is going to regress? I mean he could, but is there an ostensible reason to think he will? I do agree that McCoy gives the Eagles an advantage if Vick goes down.

So rumors are that the Eagles might trade for Tarvaris Jackson. Personally I am much more comfortable with Jackson backing up Vick than Kafka. Kafka has never shown me anything to suggest he's a legit backup QB. Foles looks good so far, but I doubt he's ready to take over if Vick goes down. I would rather give him the rookie year to watch and learn.

 

[Dak]

I'm just not seeing it. What makes you think Eli is going to regress? I mean he could, but is there an ostensible reason to think he will? I do agree that McCoy gives the Eagles an advantage if Vick goes down.

I think Eli is, statistically speaking, a 85ish QBR QB and will be this year. That's not bad, but it is a year over year regression. Just looking at his career work it makes sense. With a questionable Oline, lack of a running game, and questions on the Dline, I think the Giants are still in that 7-9/9-7 window. However, so are the other teams in the East, due to cannibalization as much as anything else.

I think we are going to see more of the Giants team that flopped against the Redskins than the team that dominated the Packers.

Edit: On the Cowboys, the offensive line issues are really concerning me. Not due to personnel itself, but no training camp work to gel due to injuries. Maybe 4-5 weeks in everything starts looking smooth, but will it be too late by that point (or will other injuries begin to emerge by that point)? I'm pretty much expecting Romo to miss games this year the way the line looks now. I actually expect every NFC East QB to miss games this year.

I think the surprise of the year is going to be the Dallas D. Last year they had a notable discrepency between pressures and sacks, and I think with what looks to be a solid defensive backfield opposing quarterbacks are going to find themselves looking at the sky. A lot. The pressures from last year will not only increase but turn into sacks instead of dumpoffs for 80 yd TDs (Hey T-Hurdle). Those pressures that don't turn into sacks will lead to an sharp increase in INTs to a ballhawking secondary.

 

[skeptik]

The only number that stands out as poor for Eli over the last 3 seasons is his 2010 interception total, but people who watched the Giants that year know that there was an inordinate number of balls tipped off of receivers' hands and into defenders' hands. And by inordinate, I mean 10 or more. Other than that, his numbers have been great. Over 4000 yards in both 2009 and 2010 when they had a better running game, his completion % in 09 and 10 was actually even better than last year, and he averaged 29 touchdown passes those two years with a more than respectable YPA (especially 09; 10 was hurt by the turnovers). In other words, I don't think the supporting evidence for your argument is very strong.

edit: You think I'm kidding?

Week 1 (yes, THREE tipped ball interceptions in week 1):
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81a78ed6/Panthers-defense-INT
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81a7779f/Panthers-defense-INT
http://www.nfl.com/videos/carolina-panthers/09000d5d81a779c3/Panthers-defense-INT

Week 2:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81aae7ff/Colts-defense-INT

Week 3:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/tennessee-titans/09000d5d81ad5d4b/Titans-defense-INT

Week 7:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81b9e549/Cowboys-defense-INT
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81b9e548/Cowboys-defense-INT

Week 11:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81c511ac/Eagles-defense-fumble-recovery

Week 16:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81d3bad1/Packers-defense-INT

Week 17:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/09000d5d81d6638f/Redskins-defense-INT

 

[Dak]

The only number that stands out as poor for Eli over the last 3 seasons is his 2010 interception total, but people who watched the Giants that year know that there was an inordinate number of balls tipped off of receivers' hands and into defenders' hands. And by inordinate, I mean a dozen or more. Other than that, his numbers have been great. Over 4000 yards in both 2009 and 2010 when they had a better running game, his completion % in 09 and 10 was actually even better than last year, and he averaged 29 touchdown passes those two years with a more than respectable YPA (especially 09; 10 was hurt by the turnovers). In other words, I don't think the supporting evidence for your argument is very strong.

I expect a statistical output similar to his 2008 campaign. An uptick in INT's offset by an increase in yardage over that year, due to Nicks/Cruz YAC abilities, although I don't expect them to both achieve the YAC ranking they had last year. 2 WRs in the top ten YAC for the conference is a statistical anomaly.

 

[skeptik]

You're going to need to come up with something a bit more substantial if you're going to argue that a player coming off a career year is going to be more like he was 4 years ago than in the last 3 seasons, because there's really not much demonstrable logic in that that I can decipher.

 

[Dak]

You're going to need to come up with something a bit more substantial if you're going to argue that a player coming off a career year is going to be more like he was 4 years ago than in the last 3 seasons, because there's really not much demonstrable logic in that that I can decipher.

A QB cannot just magically produce numbers without some level of supporting caste. I think the Giants team is weaker right now than it has been for a couple of years, the additions/emergence of players like JPP/Cruz notwithstanding. I'm also looking at the defensive improvements in the NFC East, and the Giants overall SoS based on 2012 finishes.

 

[skeptik]

The Giants are not weaker. If anything, they are deeper at the skill positions. Rueben Randle is going to be better than Mario Manningham, 2nd year WR Jerrel Jernigan is emerging, and they lost Domenik Hixon early last year. Bradshaw should be healthier than last year, Jacobs only played when he felt like it, David Wilson is a legitimate threat already, and D.J. Ware and Andre Brown are both impressing at running back. The offensive line will be at least as good as it was last year as long as Will Beatty can stay on the field. And even if he can't, Sean Locklear is serviceable. Eli's game is like Peyton's in that it's geared toward avoiding pressure. He's never been sacked more than 30 times in a season.

 

[Dak]

The Giants are not weaker. If anything, they are deeper at the skill positions. Rueben Randle is going to be better than Mario Manningham, 2nd year WR Jerrel Jernigan is emerging, and they lost Domenik Hixon early last year. Bradshaw should be healthier than last year, Jacobs only played when he felt like it, David Wilson is a legitimate threat already, and D.J. Ware and Andre Brown are both impressing at running back. The offensive line will be at least as good as it was last year as long as Will Beatty can stay on the field. And even if he can't, Sean Locklear is serviceable. Eli's game is like Peyton's in that it's geared toward avoiding pressure. He's never been sacked more than 30 times in a season.

I'm not finding anything to online to corroborate that optimism, although of course that doesn't mean anything, and once the season gets underway the Giants may prove me grossly wrong and your observations prove correct. But as of right now I'm not seeing it.

 

[skeptik]

I wrote about it myself in my observations from the first preseason game. I went over the game with a fine-toothed comb (I did so even more with the Steelers game). Wilson and Randle are explosive and I expect them to make immediate impacts. Wilson is dynamic and could very well win the kickoff return job in addition. Beatty missed the first game with some back spasms, but he was back practicing this week and should be fine. The Giants' offensive line is not like it was during their first super bowl run, granted, but even with that regression, they're still at worst somewhere in the middle, and with a QB that neutralizes offensive line weaknesses, I don't see it being an issue. Beatty-Boothe-Baas-Snee-Diehl...I can live with that.

The bigger issue will be the defense with injuries to Canty, Boley, and Thomas, but even that might not be all that big of a deal, especially since I expect Canty and Boley to be ready for the regular season. If not, Rocky Bernard will start for Canty, and Keith Rivers will start for Boley. Prince Amukamara, a 1st rounder, will start for Thomas, and Jayron Hosley or any number of passable CBs (Bruce Johnson, Justin Tryon, Michael Coe) will be the nickel. They have depth at safety too even without bringing back Deon Grant (which I still think they should do) with Will Hill and Tyler Sash.

 

[Jimmy... Dead.]

New York Giants Add Former Broncos DT Marcus Thomas

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ncos-dt-marcus-thomas-due-to-injuries-to-line

I like this move.

 

[Dak]

Ware is now the 7th Cowboys player to have hamstring issues. Someone needs to take a serious look at the strength and conditioning trainers.

 

[skeptik]

Meanwhile, the Giants are convinced that the beds in their training camp dorms are causing rampant back issues.

 

[Dak]

Meanwhile, the Giants are convinced that the beds in their training camp dorms are causing rampant back issues.

Yeah I saw that. It's possible.

 

[skeptik]

It's actually mildly interesting, because the team's deal with SUNY to hold camp there ends after this season, and the team recently built some pretty serious practice facilities near the stadium. Although I like the idea of going away to training camp as a sort of team building ritual (the Steelers have been going to St. Vincent College since like 1965), if there's a genuine issue, then it really may not be worth it.

 

[Jimmy... Dead.]

I don't like Austin at all. I thought he got pushed around in the game vs the Jags (I know it's his first game back in a while) and looked sluggish.



Marcus Thomas however...

 

[skeptik]

Yeah, a while is over two years. It's really not surprising that he didn't look great after not having played in a real game since 2009. I know he got pushed around against the Jags, I actually took detailed notes on the game in fact (handwritten though).

But if we're looking at this realistically, the only way he doesn't make the roster this year is if he's on injured reserve. No way they give up on a second round pick or put him on the practice squad, because he'll be gone. Have patience with him.

edit: He actually played better than I remember watching that iso on him.

 

[Dak]

Dallas possibly looking at Jordan Shipley.

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/article-BryanBroaddus/Broaddus-If-Cowboys-Are-Interested-In-WR-Shipley-Here%E2%80%99s-A-Look/131c9f3d-0152-45f1-964d-8e7f9401090d

 

[skeptik]

It would be a wise move. The only reason that the Bengals let him go is because they have so many receivers and he's still not regained all of his speed to win the slot position. Behind Green, the Bengals have Brandon Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Armon Binns, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, and Ryan Whalen.

 

[Dak]

It would be a wise move. The only reason that the Bengals let him go is because they have so many receivers and he's still not regained all of his speed to win the slot position. Behind Green, the Bengals have Brandon Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Armon Binns, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, and Ryan Whalen.

It sounds like a no-lose move. I think Dallas has a lot of potential in the new receivers in camp, but maybe not for this year, and with the hamstring injuries and spleen injury etc, giving Romo untested WRs to depend on is just one more potential issue. I know Shipley has been productive in the past and he's still young.