It's Cutler's first playoff game, and he's capable of having a bad enough game that they would lose. But the Bears defense is pretty seasoned, and I would be pretty surprised if they allowed more than 20 points. I expect a really conservative plan on offense and a reliance on defense and special teams to control field position. This team used that strategy to go to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman not too long ago, with a lot of the same defensive starters, and not with Peppers, who has been terrific so far. Cutler is just a lot better than Grossman was, and has protected the ball much better this year than last year, even though he makes some very ill-advised throws. Hester has been outstanding lately. Teams that score are giving the ball back to the Bears between the 35-50.
CHI vs. GB games have been very balanced this year. I also think CHI could do well at ATL. They had a better record on the road, but their best wins were at home (PHI, GB, NYJ), in addition to some terrible losses (NE, SEA, WSH). The offense seems better suited for a fast track on turf. ATL seems to need a lot of plays to score, and they get away with it since they are so good at avoiding errors. I am not sure sure the Falcons can play from behind as well as PHI or GB could.
BAL @ PIT is a toss-up to me, but I'd give PIT the edge based on being at home and having the bye. Ravens finally seemed to have a good offensive game. Experience looked like a factor today as well.
NYJ @ NE probably won't even be close. Sanchez is not good enough, and the Jets defense is not all that special. It would take uncharacteristic turnovers. But let's not make too much of a deal about Brady's anti-INT streak. Anyone who's watched him lately has seen some clear drops by opposing DBs. There's been some luck there. However, their RBs look better than what they've run out there the past few years, and certainly better than what Indy had.