NFL 2012

[Dak]

People who make videos like that generally don't say anything worth listening too.

 

[skeptik]

Since 2007, Miller has 271 receptions on 377 targets for a 72% completion percentage. Witten has 450 receptions on 646 targets for a 70% completion percentage. Miller has 3081 yards for 11.4 yards per catch. Witten has 5139 yards for 11.4 yards per catch. Miller's 3012 yards (no YAC data for 2012) includes 1367 yards after the catch, or 45% of his total yards. Witten's 5071 yards includes 1840 yards after the catch, or only 36% of his total yards.

It's not Miller's fault that Witten has been targeted 269 more times over the past 5+ seasons. The Steelers' offensive line has been in dire straits pretty much since then, when Alan Faneca left, Jeff Hartings retired, and Kendall Simmons and Marvel Smith were injury-riddled. Miller's been forced into service as effectively a 6th lineman possibly more than any other team's top tight end that is a legitimate receiving threat because of this. The one season that they actually turned the offense over to the passing game (2009), he made the Pro Bowl. Instead of lazily accusing me of fanboyism because it's so much easier to just look at how many yards a tight end has to decide who is better, you should actually do some research. There's a reason that Miller is always talked about as one of the more underrated players in the league. It's because he's a great, complete, blocking tight end who has the capability of putting up the numbers of the Clarks, the Gates, the Gonzalezes, the Wittens, if he was used as a receiver the same way that they have been throughout their careers. Fanboyism my ass. Miller vs. Witten is a very legitimate discussion to have, and this year should be telling to see if Todd Haley uses Miller differently, particularly in the red zone.

 

[Dak]

Because the Dallas O-Line has been so wonderful for the past 3+ seasons

 

[crimsonfloyd]

People who make videos like that generally don't say anything worth listening too.

No they don't, but it sure is fun watch. Some people take these games way too seriously.

 

[skeptik]

Because the Dallas O-Line has been so wonderful for the past 3+ seasons

Do you realize that of the 35 passing plays that Witten was on the field for against the Seahawks, he pass protected on TWO? He ran 33 routes during the game. That's the kind of offense that Dallas runs, and it's also influenced by the fact that Witten is an average pass protector. Miller is an excellent pass protector with a team that is only now beginning to get a better offensive line, and they have one of the best receiving units in the league. Bruce Arians also infamously neglected the backs and tight ends in the passing game often, which is part of why he was fired. This is why Miller isn't (or hasn't been anyway) used in the passing game to the same extent as the "name brand" (read: glorified wide receiver) tight ends in the league, not because he's a mediocre pass catcher.

 

[Dak]

You can't have it both ways + argue from silence.

Do you realize that of the 35 passing plays that Witten was on the field for against the Seahawks, he pass protected on TWO? He ran 33 routes during the game. That's the kind of offense that Dallas runs, and it's also influenced by the fact that Witten is an average pass protector.

Or maybe it's influenced by the fact that when you have a weapon like that, it makes more sense to put him in the position to make a play, or draw coverage off the other pass catchers. Also, what's better, leaving an extra blocker in or making them pay for blitzing by having an open Witten? If the Steelers considered Miller such a weapon, he might have been used more as a weapon.

Witten got his 11.4 as mostly a "safety valve", not on designed plays to Witten. Can we say the same for Millers? Easy to get a nice deep catch in open space (Hello YAC) when no one expects you to be the target, unlike Witten who gets double teams regularly, or is playing in the short zone. Your stats do more to prove an excellent case for Witten.

Miller is an excellent pass protector with a team that is only now beginning to get a better offensive line, and they have one of the best receiving units in the league. Bruce Arians also infamously neglected the backs and tight ends in the passing game often, which is part of why he was fired. This is why Miller isn't (or hasn't been anyway) used in the passing game to the same extent as the "name brand" (read: glorified wide receiver) tight ends in the league, not because he's a mediocre pass catcher.

So he didn't get used as a pass catcher due to scheme. Ok. So? That's arguing from silence. He wasn't used and therefore doesn't have the measurable statistics for the argument over time. You are arguing an unprovable hypothetical.

So when Witten is used as a catcher it's because "he's an average blocker", when Miller is used as a blocker "it's because of scheme". Convenient. Looks like having it both ways to me.

 

[skeptik]

Or maybe it's influenced by the fact that when you have a weapon like that, it makes more sense to put him in the position to make a play, or draw coverage off the other pass catchers. Also, what's better, leaving an extra blocker in or making them pay for blitzing by having an open Witten? If the Steelers considered Miller such a weapon, he might have been used more as a weapon.

You're putting absolute statements in my mouth. Obviously the Cowboys use Witten as a pass catcher so much because he's a good pass catcher, because they believe strongly in their quarterback to be able to beat the blitz with a quick read, AND because Witten is a mediocre pass blocking tight end (even experts and websites that rank Witten in the top 3 tight ends in the league right now acknowledge this). Obviously if you have a tight end who is a mediocre pass blocker but an above average pass catcher, you're going to send him out on routes more than you would a more balanced tight end regardless of the scheme. HOWEVER, running 33 routes on 35 passing plays is pretty telling in and of itself.

People clamoring for Heath Miller to be used more in the passing game over the past 5 seasons, excepting 2009 where he actually was used more in the passing game and made the Pro Bowl, has been an even bigger narrative among Steelers fans than the offensive line struggles and the desire to fire Bruce Arians. Do you not notice in every single primetime game the announcers talking about how if the Steelers used him in the passing game more, he would be a household name like certain other tight ends?

It's amusing that you attempt to suggest that because Miller isn't used more in the passing game, it must be because he's not much of a weapon as a tight end. The only thing that even suggests that to be the case, however, is a matter of volume and not quality. I already cited the statistics before. Over the past 5+ seasons, a 72% completion percentage, 11.4 yards per catch (which is 8.2 yards per target, vs. Witten's 8 yards per target), and 45% of his yards coming after the catch.

Here's another stat: he averaged one touchdown per 12.3 catches over that span; one per 17.1 targets. Over his career, he averages a touchdown every 10.4 catches (ESPN doesn't have stats for targets prior to 2006, so I didn't get this stat for his career). Compare that to Witten's one touchdown per 16.7 catches/23.9 targets over the same span, and one touchdown per 17.1 catches for his career.

How you can analyze these stats and seriously try to imply that he wouldn't be a bigger weapon if he would merely be USED more is just bogus.

Witten got his 11.4 as mostly a "safety valve", not on designed plays to Witten. Can we say the same for Millers? Easy to get a nice deep catch in open space (Hello YAC) when no one expects you to be the target, unlike Witten who gets double teams regularly, or is playing in the short zone. Your stats do more to prove an excellent case for Witten.

Okay, so you don't watch Steelers games. Or Cowboys games. Witten gets a lot of quick passes thrown his way, which strongly indicates that he's an early read, does it not? Miller has no more "designed plays" going his way than Witten does, nor a larger percentage when he does run routes. He's also a safety valve...you know, how pretty much all tight ends running backs outside of a few are. Do you really think Witten's 11.4 YPC is more "legitimate" than Millers? And Miller gets YAC because he's fucking big and never gets tackled by the first person. Try watching a game once in a while and see how many yards he gets not simply after the catch, but after contact. VERY rarely is he ever put in positions where he has room to run after the catch. Which wouldn't matter anyway, because speed and agility are not key parts of his game. It's his size and leverage that gets him YAC, not elusiveness or designed plays.

So he didn't get used as a pass catcher due to scheme. Ok. So? That's arguing from silence. He wasn't used and therefore doesn't have the measurable statistics for the argument over time. You are arguing an unprovable hypothetical.

Of course it's provable, but you wouldn't have the patience to wade through the proof. When the line is protecting better, they allow Miller to run more routes or they are more inclined to keep a back in the sidecar. But that simply doesn't happen often enough, or at least it hasn't. The pass blocking actually is starting to look better this year (despite the 8 sacks), but the run blocking of the line is really struggling...

Would you be willing to log into my Game Rewind account and re-watch all of the Steelers' games from last year and see how more frequently Miller is allowed to release from the line when the line is blocking well? Of course not, nor would I expect you to. But of course it leaves you with the easy "you can't prove it" line, even though it's pretty much regarded as the common opinion around the league (ask opposing head coaches about Miller) that Miller would be a deadly weapon if the Steelers could afford to use him less in pass protection.

So when Witten is used as a catcher it's because "he's an average blocker", when Miller is used as a blocker "it's because of scheme". Convenient. Looks like having it both ways to me.

He IS an average pass blocker. This is and has always been his reputation among analysts who actually know about tight ends and blocking. Even Bleacher Report, who ranks Witten 3rd and Miller 8th, notes that Miller is among the best in the league in pass blocking while Witten is average. To deny that Witten's average blocking ability is not a factor in him running 33 routes on 35 passing plays is willful ignorance.

Miller's use in blocking had been of both scheme and necessity, as I already mentioned. Arians loved using 3 tight end sets to block and rarely targeted the backs and ends in the passing game. This is common knowledge.

I don't care if you believe Witten is better than Miller. There are strong arguments to be made for both being better than the other. What I do care about is being scoffed at like an idiotic homer when I present a strong case for my claim. If I were building an NFL team (not a fantasy team), I would choose Miller before Witten as my top tight end. Granted, if that were actually my situation, I would choose Gronkowski (one of the few pass catching tight ends that are truly complete tight ends), but the discussion was between Miller and Witten at tight end.

 

[Dak]

You're putting absolute statements in my mouth. Obviously the Cowboys use Witten as a pass catcher so much because he's a good pass catcher, because they believe strongly in their quarterback to be able to beat the blitz with a quick read, AND because Witten is a mediocre pass blocking tight end (even experts and websites that rank Witten in the top 3 tight ends in the league right now acknowledge this). Obviously if you have a tight end who is a mediocre pass blocker but an above average pass catcher, you're going to send him out on routes more than you would a more balanced tight end regardless of the scheme. HOWEVER, running 33 routes on 35 passing plays is pretty telling in and of itself.

People clamoring for Heath Miller to be used more in the passing game over the past 5 seasons, excepting 2009 where he actually was used more in the passing game and made the Pro Bowl, has been an even bigger narrative among Steelers fans than the offensive line struggles and the desire to fire Bruce Arians. Do you not notice in every single primetime game the announcers talking about how if the Steelers used him in the passing game more, he would be a household name like certain other tight ends?

It's amusing that you attempt to suggest that because Miller isn't used more in the passing game, it must be because he's not much of a weapon as a tight end. The only thing that even suggests that to be the case, however, is a matter of volume and not quality. I already cited the statistics before. Over the past 5+ seasons, a 72% completion percentage, 11.4 yards per catch (which is 8.2 yards per target, vs. Witten's 8 yards per target), and 45% of his yards coming after the catch.

Here's another stat: he averaged one touchdown per 12.3 catches over that span; one per 17.1 targets. Over his career, he averages a touchdown every 10.4 catches (ESPN doesn't have stats for targets prior to 2006, so I didn't get this stat for his career). Compare that to Witten's one touchdown per 16.7 catches/23.9 targets over the same span, and one touchdown per 17.1 catches for his career.

How you can analyze these stats and seriously try to imply that he wouldn't be a bigger weapon if he would merely be USED more is just bogus.

I'm sure I could find a few offensive lineman with 100% completion ratings and all touchdowns. Why? Because no one is focused on them. Everyone knows to watch Witten, particularly on 3rd downs and in the red zone, and yet he still puts up his numbers. Everyone is going to be expecting Miller to block, and occasionally the coach sends him out to receive. Everyone is surprised, Miller makes the catch, etc etc. I'm so amazed.

When I talk about Witten's blocking prowess I'm of course mainly referring to his run blocking, since he does rarely pass block.

Okay, so you don't watch Steelers games. Or Cowboys games. Witten gets a lot of quick passes thrown his way, which strongly indicates that he's an early read, does it not? Miller has no more "designed plays" going his way than Witten does, nor a larger percentage when he does run routes. He's also a safety valve...you know, how pretty much all tight ends running backs outside of a few are. Do you really think Witten's 11.4 YPC is more "legitimate" than Millers? And Miller gets YAC because he's fucking big and never gets tackled by the first person. Try watching a game once in a while and see how many yards he gets not simply after the catch, but after contact. VERY rarely is he ever put in positions where he has room to run after the catch. Which wouldn't matter anyway, because speed and agility are not key parts of his game. It's his size and leverage that gets him YAC, not elusiveness or designed plays.

I admit I don't watch Steelers games (unless it's against the Cowboys). I barely have the time to watch Cowboys games (plus I'm not in market so I have to depend on a decent pirate stream. It sucks. One day the NFL will offer GamePass in the US)

I don't need to watch a Steelers game to know he doesn't receive the same defensive attention that Witten, Graham, Gronk, Gonzalez, etc. receive. That statistics and facts you display should be obvious enough to any defensive game planner.
Those quick passes to Witten are rarely for 12+ yards, and often with QB pressure and double coverage. So yes, I do consider it "more legitimate".

Of course it's provable, but you wouldn't have the patience to wade through the proof. When the line is protecting better, they allow Miller to run more routes or they are more inclined to keep a back in the sidecar. But that simply doesn't happen often enough, or at least it hasn't. The pass blocking actually is starting to look better this year (despite the 8 sacks), but the run blocking of the line is really struggling...

Would you be willing to log into my Game Rewind account and re-watch all of the Steelers' games from last year and see how more frequently Miller is allowed to release from the line when the line is blocking well? Of course not, nor would I expect you to. But of course it leaves you with the easy "you can't prove it" line, even though it's pretty much regarded as the common opinion around the league (ask opposing head coaches about Miller) that Miller would be a deadly weapon if the Steelers could afford to use him less in pass protection.

Unprovable as in, we can't rewind to 2007 and change the Pittsburgh scheme/personnel and see how history might have been different.

He IS an average pass blocker. This is and has always been his reputation among analysts who actually know about tight ends and blocking. Even Bleacher Report, who ranks Witten 3rd and Miller 8th, notes that Miller is among the best in the league in pass blocking while Witten is average. To deny that Witten's average blocking ability is not a factor in him running 33 routes on 35 passing plays is willful ignorance.

Miller's use in blocking had been of both scheme and necessity, as I already mentioned. Arians loved using 3 tight end sets to block and rarely targeted the backs and ends in the passing game. This is common knowledge.

And Garrett loves 2TE sets with one or both a receiver (plus when you have a route runner/hands like Witten's why would you waste them blocking?) While that's not Miller's fault, it's not proof of anything.

Again, when talking about Witten's blocking I'm referring to his run blocking.

I don't care if you believe Witten is better than Miller. There are strong arguments to be made for both being better than the other. What I do care about is being scoffed at like an idiotic homer when I present a strong case for my claim. If I were building an NFL team (not a fantasy team), I would choose Miller before Witten as my top tight end. Granted, if that were actually my situation, I would choose Gronkowski (one of the few pass catching tight ends that are truly complete tight ends), but the discussion was between Miller and Witten at tight end.

Is the Gronk that good of a blocker? I have no idea as I don't watch Patriots games (for the same reason I don't watch hardly any non-Cowboys games, no time or availability). He is a physical specimen. I think who you should take as a player a any given position for building a team would be heavily dependent on when you were building the team in the player(s) history. Would I want the Gronk over Witten in 2011/2? Of course. Witten is 30, and his best ball is most likely behind him.

 

[King Richard]

Seriously though, this isn't really an argument worth having. Both are good players, move it along.

 

[Dak]

How many picks did Seyton throw yesterday? Think it rhymed with "Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"

 

[skeptik]

Seriously though, this isn't really an argument worth having. Both are good players, move it along.

Fair enough.

Dak, if you'd like me to respond, just let me know and I'll reply in a PM. If you're bored with this already I'll just drop it.

In other news, Steve Sabol died. I'm really not sure how the hell I didn't know he had brain cancer. The Eagles also lost another offensive lineman for the season, not sure of CF mentioned that.

 

[Dak]

Yeah I'm bored.

Sabol dying is notable. Did some amazing work in his lifetime.

 

[King Richard]

How many picks did Seyton throw yesterday? Think it rhymed with "Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"

This may be true, but look at what he did after those three picks. They almost won that game my friend. That first quarter looked like a Peyton who was trying way too hard to make something happen, I've never seen him do that before. They kept bringing up that 2007 Chargers game, but I distinctly remember watching that game where Cromartie had three picks himself and Peyton just got really unlucky. Cromartie had the game of a goddamn lifetime that night making sick one handed grabs and stuff, and Sproles two with his two fucking returns for td's. I just remember that being the second craziest game I had ever seen, second only to the AFCCG against the Pats. And, interestingly enough, the Colts SHOULD have won THAT game as well had Vinatieri not missed a fucking gimme field goal. This Falcons game was just an example of rust, pressing too hard, and playing a good team.

edit: Just found the highlight video for that Chargers game, holy shit it was even crazier than I remember. Those two Session interceptions and that "inadvertent whistle" bullshit. And people talk shit about the replacement refs, hah! Peyton throwing SIX interceptions, and that Vinatieri miss, my god. HOW COULD YOU MISS THAT FUCKING KICK VINATIERI?!?! WHYYYYYyyyyyy

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-...c279/NFL-GameDay-Colts-vs-Chargers-highlights


Seriously, it's a sight to behold when you watch your team down 20+ points all the while knowing that this bitch isn't even close to being over with Peyton being the quarterback. God I love Peyton.

Fair enough.

Dak, if you'd like me to respond, just let me know and I'll reply in a PM. If you're bored with this already I'll just drop it.

In other news, Steve Sabol died. I'm really not sure how the hell I didn't know he had brain cancer. The Eagles also lost another offensive lineman for the season, not sure of CF mentioned that.

No shit, I had no idea he had cancer either.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

They almost won that game my friend.

That's quite a stretch. They never even had an opportunity to take the lead.

 

[King Richard]

One defensive stop and Peyton and the offense would have had the ball, who were on fire after scoring 14 unanswered points. Not much of a stretch imo.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

One defensive stop and Peyton and the offense would have had the ball, who were on fire after scoring 14 unanswered points. Not much of a stretch imo.

I wouldn't describe the offense as "on fire". They needed 4th down to score on the final drive and had punted on the previous one. They were playing better, but they weren't exactly in the type of form you would want for a two minute drill, potentially with no timeouts.

 

[Dak]

Nicks isn't playing?? Fuck.

 

[crimsonfloyd]

Ramses Barden will be starting at receiver for the Giants tomorrow night. Haven't heard of him? Not surprising. There's no real reason to have heard of him. So yeah, that's not good.

I remember people talking about him being a darkhorse in the 09 draft. A small school player with great size (or at least he's super tall). A lot of talking heads thought he would be a redzone threat. Hasn't done jack in the NFL though. Is Randle struggling to adjust to the NFL? A little surprised Barden is getting the start over him.

 

[King Richard]

I remember that guy.

 

[Jimmy... Dead.]

I remember people talking about him being a darkhorse in the 09 draft. A small school player with great size (or at least he's super tall). A lot of talking heads thought he would be a redzone threat. Hasn't done jack in the NFL though. Is Randle struggling to adjust to the NFL? A little surprised Barden is getting the start over him.

Giants offensive system is really complex. Almost every route is an option route. Having to make 2-3 man/zone reads for a rookie is a tall order. Most 1st year players don't get much time.

I expect Barden to perform well.